Thankfully something finally makes sense in what has been a very confusing and disturbing winter for Major League Baseball. Ken Griffey Jr. has agreed to come back to Seattle where he started his miraculous career 20 years ago.
The deal is a reported one-year, $2 million deal with $2.5 million in incentives based on at-bats and the amount of attendance he draws (he is expected to bring in an additional 200,000 fans this season).
Not only is this great for baseball in general, but it’s great for Mariner fans who have had very little to cheer for the past couple of seasons. There’s been Ichiro and that’s about it. Bedard didn’t do anything, “King Felix” still hasn’t been as royal as expected and most of the roster is overpaid and under performs. Basically Seattle has gone in the wrong direction over the past few seasons and at least this will give fans something to cheer for.
I know I for one am happy to see him back where I have the fondest memories of him.
By Matthew Whipps “The Diamond Cutter“ Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist diamondcutter@columnist.com
Apparently Adam Dunn got sick of waiting around for teams to come to their senses and sign him as he has reportedly signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Washington Nationals. While this is a great signing by the desperate Nationals who need a middle-of-the-order impact bat for their punch less lineup, I am less excited to see a bat like Dunn’s be wasted in Washington.
As many of you know I have been a big advocate for a contending team to sign the slugger as I feel they could greatly utilize his on-base abilities and power numbers. But in a strange, penny pinching off season, there didn’t seem to be any people banging down his door for his services.
I am a little surprised that this wasn’t a one-year deal to allow Dunn back out into the wild next season, but I’m guessing the Nationals insisted on it.
Look for Bobby Abreu to be the next off the board…
By Matthew Whipps “The Diamond Cutter“ Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist diamondcutter[at]columnist.com
Furcal continues to spin his agent's wrong doings (Malingering/Flickr).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have reached a three-year deal with catcher Ryan Doumit that will lock him up through his arbitration years. Last year Doumit had a fantastic year out of nowhere hitting .318/.356/.501 with 15 homers and 69 RBI. While my former MVN co-worker Cory Humes at Pirate Revolution believes the Pirates should trade Doumit (or hear his podcast about it), I personally believe that Doumit is an example of the type of player they need to begin to build around. With players like Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez coming up through the system as well other bright youngsters the Bucs need to start now rather than continuing to hit the “reset” button. I do however agree 100% with Humes that the Pirates should sign slugger Adam Dunn as part of the solution.
You know what you will get with Dunn (SD Dirk/Flickr).
• Speaking of the giant slugger Adam Dunn, why aren’t more teams interested in bringing him aboard this winter? Yes I know he had a strikeout rate of 25.9% last season and yes I know he won’t be winning any Gold Gloves in the outfield any time soon, but who couldn’t use his presence in the lineup? While his career average is .247, more importantly his career on-base is .381 and career slugging at .518. Plus you know he will be healthy and you will get 40 homers and 100+ RBI. So why do I keep hearing about teams not too interested in him or preferring a player who is a head case and will most likely miss 20-40 games a year? I would personally rather have Dunn or Pat Burrell over both Bobby Abreu and Milton Bradley. Call me crazy.
• I’ve already covered the Mark Teixeira saga enough on here by discussing where his options are as well as my annoyance about all the back and forth about who’s in and who’s out. I really hope Jon Heyman’s report on Teixeira’s decision coming by Christmas day is true as I can’t take much more. I think the scorecard has the Orioles, Nationals, Red Sox, Bears, Knicks and three teams from the WNBA as the top contenders.
• The New York Yankees and pitcher Chien-Ming Wang have avoided salary arbitration and agreed to a one-year, $5 million contract thus insuring the Yankees the first ever 11-man starting rotation heading into the 2009 season. Awesome.
• And finally more on the Furcal vs. Braves situation as Furcal continues to lie about his agent’s dirty tricks. Even our poll on this site last week showed 100% of people believe Furcal and his agents screwed the Braves. Just stop talking about it Furcal, we know its not true.
By Matthew Whipps “The Diamond Cutter“ Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | thefranch15e
If teams were using Monopoly money, decisions would be so much easier (mtsofan/Flickr)
With the two most coveted pitchers, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, off the market and wearing pinstripes, the next top two names come with some concerns. The concern with Ben Sheets and Derek Lowe isn’t regarding how good they are, the concern is in two totally different realms.
As team’s budgets continue to dwindle thanks to the fear most have regarding our country’s economic crisis, more and more teams are becoming more frugal and even more cautious with where they spread their money. That’s why, despite how good they are, Sheets and Lowe are desired by many but held at an arms length.
As I mentioned, each player has a different risk looming in the shadows which is keeping teams at bay. Ben Sheets has a history of injury problems and Derek Lowe is getting older and looking for a longer term contract. So which of these two have less risk and more reward than the other? That’s what we’re going to try to take a look at today. Just which player will help your team more? Let’s take a look at the two cases:
NAME: Ben Sheets POSITION: RHP BORN: 7/18/1978 AGE: 30 BATS: Right THROWS: Right COLLEGE: Northeast Louisiana MLB DEBUT: 4/5/2001
2008 MLB STATISTICS
GM
IP
W-L
ERA
SO
K/PA
BsRA9
31
198.1
13-9
3.09
158
19.5%
3.56
When Ben Sheets is on the mound he’s been fantastic. The problem over his career has been keeping him healthy enough to be on the mound. Although he has missed time, the number of games has gone up each of the past three seasons. In 2006 he appeared in only 17 games, 2007 he found the mound in 24 games and a career high 31 times in 2008. So while the trend has gone up, the lingering worry still hangs over his head. Just ask the Brewers and their fans.
Although when Sheets is on the mound he’s a true ace. Sheets has a 3/4 arm slot delivery which produces an impressive fastball. The fastball sits in the low to mid-90’s with great life both up and down in the strike zone. Sheets also has the ability to locate his fastball consistently on both sides of the plate and even can add a little cut motion to it. The former Brewer also possess a huge plus-power curveball with a fantastic downward drop and a changeup with solid fading action which he disguises well with an arm speed similar to his fastball.
As you can see when Sheets is on and healthy he can be one of the best pitchers in the game. Sheets is also a great competitor and wants to win with everything he has. This makes him a great addition to any club. I’ve always enjoyed watching the righthander on the mound and I highly suggest trying to find an archived game somewhere on MLB.com or iTunes and checking him out.
(photo courtesy of: Scott Abelman/Flickr)
NAME: Derek Lowe POSITION: RHP BORN: 6/1/1973 AGE: 35 BATS: Right THROWS: Right COLLEGE: N/A MLB DEBUT: 4/26/1997
2008 MLB STATISTICS
GM
IP
W-L
ERA
SO
K/PA
BsRA9
34
211
14-11
3.58
147
17.3%
3.31
One thing about Derek Lowe is that he has been dependable. Lowe has pitched in at least 33 games each of the past four years for the Dodgers and put up very reliable stats. You know he’ll throw you 200+ innings, you know he’ll get you between 12-14 wins, you know his ERA will be around 4.00 and you know his ground ball percentage will be amongst the best in the league at around 65%. You just need to make sure you have a good infield to gobble up all those grounders.
To say that Derek Lowe is a ground ball pitcher is an understatement. He’s a ground ball machine. Lowe has a 3/4 arm slot which he produces his heavy two-seam fastball (between 86-91 mph) that has incredible run and sink and can be thrown effectively on both sides of the plate. If his sinker is off for whatever reason, he pays for it with a lot of long balls. To keep hitters on their toes Lowe throws a slider which has a quick, late break to get right handed hitters to chase off the plate and a fading changeup to keep left handed hitters off balance. This keeps a nice mix and helps him in jams even despite not being a strikeout pitcher.
Lowe is a very durable and reliable pitcher who has shown flashes of brilliance. He’s more of a middle of the rotation type guy, especially as he gets older, but can pass as a good number two starter. Any team that decides to sign Lowe has to realize at what stage of his career he’s in. He’s not going to be an ace and if his sinker starts to go so does he. While he would be a very nice addition to any rotation, you better first make sure your infield is solid or its a waste of money and you better not sign him for too many years.
(photo courtesy of: Malingering/Flickr)
After looking at what each of these pitchers brings to the table, its still not too easy of a decision to make. On one hand if you need an ace and can risk the possibility of losing him at any given point, Sheets is the way to go. On the other hand if you have a very good infield and need a number two or three starter who you know what you are getting, then your choice is Lowe. The decision is really based on what your team’s situation is.
If I had to pick one pitcher versus the other with no other deciding factor other than who they are I would have to go with Ben Sheets simply for the risk vs. reward factor. If Sheets can give you 30+ starts he will definitely be a big part in helping your team contend for the post season and that’s exactly what you want to set yourself up for.
Of course there is always that word “if.”
By Matthew Whipps “The Diamond Cutter“ Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | thefranch15e
His new home isn't as black and white as you may think. (Rod the Rabid Rodent/Flickr)
Before the ink could even dry on C.C. Sabathia’s new monster contract from the New York Yankees, teams immediately turned their attention to the best bat available in this year’s free agent frenzy. In what has become one of the most memorable winters in recent years, Mark Teixeira’s name has been on the lips of many suitors. But it appears as if it is all about to come to an end as WEEI reports today that Karl Ravech of ESPN says we are nearing a dramatic conclusion.
Ravech also reports that the main five players in the Teixeira sweepstakes from the beginning – the Angels, Orioles, Nationals, Red Sox and Yankees – are the same ones who are in it today as they continue trying to one-up themselves with their offers. These offers are landing Big Teix in the $22 – $28 million a year range. So no matter where he chooses, he’ll be doing pretty well for himself.
So with all the offers essentially the same, I thought we’d look at all the teams involved as well as the pros and cons for each of them. Below is a look at these options and we’ll wrap things up with my final analysis of what I believe will happen. These are listed alphabetically and in no particular order:
Angels Reported Offer: 8 years, $160 million
The Angels may be the most desperate of the group as if they lose Teixeira, they lose the biggest piece of their offense. They are able to offer him a very strong chance at the post season as they have dominated the AL West for many years. Of course on the down side, Teixeira has said he wants to play out east as he is originally from Maryland. But again, the Angels need to sign him or they will be in trouble.
Nationals Reported Offer: 8 years, $160 million
Really all the Nationals have to offer Teixeira is money (that I’m not quite sure where they are getting from), the fact that it is near where he grew up and hope. Distant, far away hope that someday (hopefully within the 8 years of his contract) the Washington Nationals can put together a winning club. Of course this leads into the con and the fact that the Nationals can’t really show any progress towards ever winning.
Orioles Reported Offer: 7 years, $140-$150 million
While the Orioles may not be able to offer themselves as an instant contender in 2009, they can offer something none of the other teams can: home. Teixeira grew up in Maryland rooting for the Orioles and has said numerous times how he would love to play where he calls home. As a con they won’t be an instant contender but they do have a great base of youngsters who they can use to build around Teixeira.
Red Sox Reported Offer: 8 years, $160-$200 million
The biggest pros for the Red Sox are they have a great chance for the post season as well as most likely having the deepest pockets of all the teams. The Red Sox can dangle the fact that Teixeira will have a lot of protection in the lineup with the likes of Ortiz, Youkilis and Drew. Of course what happens in Interleague play or even the World Series when the Sox have to choose between Big Papi or Big Teix at first base against NL squads?
Yankees Reported Offer: 8 years, $160-$200 million
Their case is pretty much the exact same as the Red Sox have regarding a chance at the post season, a ton of money and lineup protection. Another thing both these clubs have in common is a less than patient fan base. Teixeira is a notoriously slow starter for the first month or two of the season and it would be interesting to see how Yankee and Red Sox fans treat their club’s newest addition. Not that this is a deterrent, but it’s something to think about.
Now that we’ve taken a peek at all the clubs involved as well as a few pros and cons for each, I believe that we can narrow Teixeira’s choice down to a team that is the best fit for him. In my opinion we can eliminate the Nationals based on the fact that they are going nowhere and probably won’t have a sniff of the playoffs within Teixeira’s potential 8 year contract. That leaves the three heavy hitters and Baltimore. If we go based on playing for a contender we would eliminate Baltimore but if we go based off playing out east we eliminate the Angels.
That brings us down to Boston and New York. It’s funny, it seems as if we always come down to Boston and New York. Both are contenders every season and both seemingly have an endless money tree planted somewhere in the front offices. With that being said, I am going to go out on a limb and say that Mark Teixeira will sign with the Baltimore Orioles. I know many of you probably disagree, but he keeps on mentioning how he wants to go home and play for the team he cheered on growing up. Plus the fact that he would instantly become the franchise player the Orioles have been searching for ever since Cal Ripken retired. He would be the center piece of a great young franchise that has a fan base begging for a chance to reach the playoffs again. It’s a perfect fit.
Now if I were Andy MacPhail, I would be doing everything possible to tug at Teixeira’s heart strings. I’d have current players like Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora and Nick Markakis and legends like Cal Ripken and Jim Palmer on the phone with him as much as possible. They should have courted him and courted him hard.
After all, franchise changing players like Mark Teixeira aren’t always available. When you have a chance to acquire them and beat out giant markets like Boston, New York and Los Angeles, you have to do it.
The Orioles have to do it.
By Matthew Whipps “The Diamond Cutter“ Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | thefranch15e
Will Boras get Manny the years and the money he's looking for? (sha in LA/flickr)
With the winter meetings beginning today, hopefully we will finally see some action in a time full of anticipation and speculation. It appears as if we just need one or two big names to sign to get the ball rolling and set the tone for the other teams, player and agents. Nobody seems like they want to be trend setter this winter as teams don’t want to overpay and agents don’t want to be undercut.
So before the first ball drops (so to speak) I’d like to give my predictions of where I believe the top 20 free agents will be heading over the coming weeks and months. Not only will this give my predictions, but it will also give my rankings of the top free agents as many people have requested.
Two birds, one stone. On to the list:
1.) C.C. Sabathia – Dodgers
I know I am in the minority here but I just hope Sabathia doesn’t give into the player’s union and the big dollars the Yankees are throwing at him. For once I’d like to see a player go where he wants (wants to play out west) and not go where the most money is. Crazy concept I know.
2.) Mark Teixeira – Angels
I just don’t see the Angels not signing him. They need to do whatever they can to lock this star up.
3.) Manny Ramirez – Dodgers
Some way, some how Boras is going to get Manny four years and $100 million. Too many years to keep him interested.
4.) AJ Burnett – Braves
The Braves need him since the Peavy talks have all but dried up. He would be a huge sign for them and really lock down their rotation.
5.) Francisco Rodriguez – Mets
He’s the best of the available closers and I don’t see the Mets going second best. Especially heading into a new stadium.
6.) Ryan Dempster – Cubs
Done and done. You’ll have to take my word that this was my prediction. Dempster pitched great and wanted to stay in Chicago.
7.) Adam Dunn – Nationals
At first I didn’t see this happening as there is no real reason to sign with the Nats. But with how overloaded the market is and how much the Nats want a clean up hitter and a big name, they will over pay for the big man.
8.) Derek Lowe – Yankees
This will happen for sure if the Yankees lose Sabathia. They will get desperate and give in to his demands of too many years.
9.) Ben Sheets – Braves
This is a HUGE hunch. The Braves do have enough to sign Burnett, Sheets and the next guy on this list. Alternatively I see him going to the Yankees if they don’t get Sabathia.
10.) Raul Ibanez – Braves
They want a lefty, they want a good fielder in left and they want a power hitter. Sounds like a perfect fit to me.
13.) Pat Burrell – Rays
Attractive place to play now and the Rays need another big bopper. Plus Burrell should be in the AL with the DH rule especially as he gets older. Plus he was never truly appreciated in Philly.
14.) Rafael Furcal – Dodgers
Already spat in the face of the A’s (who I originally would have predicted) and I don’t see any viable options for him. He’s pretty much boxed himself into a corner.
15.) Casey Blake – Twins
I think the Twins are locked in on him and determined to sign him to solidify a third base hole that has been there since Corey Koskie left years ago. Plus they are hesitant to give up their young pitching for Atkins or Beltre.
16.) Jason Giambi – Athletics
Best fit for everyone involved. Plus I don’t know if you are aware of this but there’s a history there.
17.) Milton Bradley – Rays
Here is a perfect DH filler for the Rays. Since he would have to stay in the AL the only other option I see is Toronto.
18.) Brian Fuentes – Brewers
No Sabathia, no Sheets and no closer means they have a large pot of money to throw around. They won’t do this until after the Mets make their move.
19.) Orlando Hudson – Mets
The Mets want to get rid of Luis Castillo’s contract (and broken old body) in the worst way. They are attempting a contract dump with another team (bad contract for bad contract) and if they can swing that they will go after Hudson.
20.) Kerry Wood – Indians
He will be the final of the big three closers available and the Indians will swoop in and grab him. They desperately need a closer and will fit the bill for them.
By Matthew Whipps “The Diamond Cutter“ Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | thefranch15e
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About This Blog The Diamond Cutter is an in-depth look at all of Major League Baseball and its prospects with some fantasy baseball sprinkled in from writer Matthew Whipps.
About Author
Matthew Whipps is a baseball writer covering the Minnesota Twins for Examiner.com. In the past his season press credentials to cover the Minnesota Twins gave him new insight to the game and brought him closer than ever before. Whipps has written for Baseball Daily Digest, MVN and The Bleacher Report as well as having work featured on SportsIllustrated.com, MLB.com, Houston Chronicle and The Hardball Times. You can get analysis anytime via Twitter @matthewwhipps.
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Angels Reported Offer: 8 years, $160 million
Nationals Reported Offer: 8 years, $160 million
Orioles Reported Offer: 7 years, $140-$150 million
Red Sox Reported Offer: 8 years, $160-$200 million
Yankees Reported Offer: 8 years, $160-$200 million
The Diamond Cutter 