Hot Stove: Kouz, Wolf, Millwood & Harden

Kouzmanoff has been a hot commodity this winter (San Diego Shooter/Flickr).

• There are reports that upwards of eight teams have inquired the Padres about the availability of third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff (.255, 18 HR, 88 RBI). It appears as if the two front runners are the Minnesota Twins and San Francisco Giants, both of whom are in dire need of a third baseman. Jayson Stark at ESPN.com Tweeted this just a bit ago: “Hearing that Padres offered Kouzmanoff to Giants for Fred Lewis & Kevin Fransden. Asked Twins for Glen Perkins & 2nd player.”

• It appears as if the Texas Rangers are going to be more active than many originally thought. The Rangers just completed a deal in which they sent veteran righty Kevin Millwood (13-10, 3.67 ERA) to Baltimore for setup man Chris Ray (7.27 ERA, 39 K) and a player to be named. This freed up enough money for them to go out and sign one of their main targets, Rich Harden (9-9, 4.09 ERA, 171 K). Reports say the Rangers are closing in on a deal with Harden and something could be done as soon as tonight or tomorrow.

• The Milwaukee Brewers have officially signed left-hander Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23 ERA) to a three-year, $29.75 million deal. This was a big signing for them as they are very much in need of pitching help and they got one of the stronger arms on the market. And this wasn’t all they did today as the club also came to terms with reliever LaTroy Hawkins (2.13 ERA, 45 K, 19 HD) on a two-year, $7.5 million deal. The Brewers have money and are definitely making the most of it.

Trades and signings are slowly starting to happen more frequently and now that teams have started moving and shaking, I think (and hope) this gets other teams to start pulling the trigger. It always seems to take the first few teams to get the ball rolling.

The Adam Jones Diaries

There have been many times in the history of baseball that highly touted prospects have ended up amounting to nothing more than hype. This was after plenty of grooming and coaching in the minors and an adequate chance to prove themselves in the majors. Sometimes young players just don’t have what it takes to make it. It happens.

However in an age of instant gratification, so many teams either rush players through their system to the big leagues or are ready to write off young players who don’t fulfill their prophecy the moment they suit up in their big league threads. Some of these players are pushed aside as teams lose patience before really getting a true chance to prove themselves. This causes organizations to trade or even outright cut players causing teams miss out on players that could have otherwise been a big part of their future.

This is why all the murmurs of Adam Jones possibly not being as good as advertised last season were very shocking to me. How could anyone make a decision on him after such a small sampling? That’s why this season was such a big time in Jones’ career. With 661 career plate appearances over three seasons heading into 2009 (roughly what an everyday player would have in one season), we would finally see if all his tools would start to come together. Good thing for the Orioles they swiped him away from Seattle when they did.

Now before diving into what makes Jones tick, an example of a very highly touted prospect that seems to not be what he was thought to be would be someone like Delmon Young. As a life-long, die hard Twins fan, that kills me to say. Luckily I’m a realist so I can freely admit this. Delmon Young was once the top prospect in baseball. Since having a fairly strong rookie campaign (.288 AVG, 93 RBI, .723 OPS), not only has he not become the hitter or power hitter he was expected to be, his hitting and power have actually regressed each season to the point that he has an OPS of .563 and ISO of .039 thus far in 2009. As truly horrible as that line is, his regression in such key areas after over 1500 plate appearances shows that Young won’t be around much longer if he continues down this path.

Now Jones on the other hand has taken full advantage of the opportunities he has been given. Not only did he work hard with Orioles hitting coaches over the spring, he sought out the advice of stolen base specialist Brian Roberts for help in his base running. Mixing those in with his natural abilities has proven to be just what Jones needed to become a starter in Baltimore and now a fixture in their lineup. Now what exactly makes Jones such a good player today versus before?

For starters Jones has developed into a solid outfielder in center. He plays a shallow centerfield which is ok due to his excellent range. He has shown great improvements in his jumps and routes to balls hit in the gaps or straight back over his head. This helps a lot in cutting down on balls hit to short center as he knows he can get to most balls hit over his head. Jones also has a very strong arm with good life and having him paired up with Nick Markakis in right field makes runners think twice before trying to advance.

Jones’ defense was never really called too much into question as he’s always been a fairly strong outfielder. Where people started getting on him was in regards to his performance at the plate. On the plus side, Jones has always had excellent bat speed and solid strength. Jones also has very good speed which until recently was never utilized properly. Between poor base running decisions and not fully reading a pitcher’s move in order to steal last season, Jones had a lot of room for improvement. This made huge strides over the winter and spring as hard work has helped him start to realize his potential on the base paths.

Now where the knocks on Jones began was in regards to his undisciplined approach at the plate. For starters he has a long swing which can cause a young hitter issues if they aren’t taught how to harness it. Jones is also a fastball hitter and pitchers quickly learned that his Kryptonite was off speed pitches. Pitchers began drowning him in breaking pitches off the plate (and fastballs up in the zone) making his life even more difficult. His stats from last season show it as he posted a 21.0% SO% and 4.70 SO/BB rate. While it was an improvement from his previous short stints in the majors, it still wasn’t anything pretty.

The change in Jones began late last season as he began making adjustments to pitchers who were attacking him with breaking stuff. While it wasn’t a drastic change, he cut his K% in the second half of the season going from 22.3% to 18.1%. Sure it wasn’t huge but it was a start in the right direction.

This season we have seen more of the same from Jones. His approach has improved quite a bit as we’ve seen his plate discipline start to come together. Because of this we have also seen that power he has always been capable of begin to blossom. Here is a quick look at some of his numbers from last year compared to this year:

+——+——+——+——+——+——-+——+——-+—–+
| YEAR | OPS | OPS+ | ISO | HR% | SO% | BB% | SO/BB | LD% |
+——+——+——+——+——+——-+——+——-+—–+
| 2008 | .711 | 85 | .130 | 1.8% | 21.0% | 4.5% | 4.70 | 16% |
| 2009 | .974 | 151 | .244 | 4.8% | 19.7% | 6.1% | 3.21 | 22% |
+——+——+——+——+——+——-+——+——-+—–+

As you can see, he has made improvements in some very key areas. Having him start out with a strong spring, then carrying that over to the season has made a huge difference in his confidence and has landed him at the top of the lineup in a very strong Baltimore offense.

So the question now is whether or not he can keep this pace up. The type of approach Jones had prior to his improvements is the type of approach that can easily creep back into a hitters head, especially if he begins to slump. When a hitter with a long swing who had a tendency to have trouble with breaking pitches begins to struggle, he may try to do too much at the plate which will get him back into the “free-swinging” state of mind which will again cause him to start chasing pitches all over the zone. This is also a tough funk to get out of once you are deep in it. So for Jones to avoid this, he needs to keep his patience at the plate, try not to press too much and if he does find himself in a mini-slump, keep close to his hitting coach and veterans to ensure he keeps on track.

Based on what I have seen from Jones over the past two seasons, I think he is more than capable of being a very strong major league ballplayer throughout his career. I’m not sure if he can keep up the average up as high as it currently is (.335 entering Wednesday) but I do think he can hit around .290 consistently with 20-25 homers and 20-plus stolen bases.

I don’t know about you but I’d take that from my centerfielder any day.

Top Prospect #19: Brian Matusz

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NAME: Brian Matusz POSITION: Pitcher AGE: 22 | BATS: L | THROWS: L ORGANIZATION: Baltimore Orioles

2008 STATISTICS LVL G IP W-L ERA SO WHIP NCAA 15 105.0 12-2 1.71 141 1.00 Scouting Report: The Orioles have two of the best pitching prospects in the game today with this youngster edging out Tillman. Matusz has a quick, live arm and fantastic command of his stuff. While his fastball can reach the mid-90’s, what makes him so dominant is how he keeps hitters off balance by mixing in a strong change up, power curve and a deceptive 3/4 arm slot. He also throws all three of these pitches for strikes on both sides of the plate which just adds to his effectiveness. The fact that he has harnessed all of these traits at such a young age displays what a strong presence he has on the mound. Look for him to get better and better and become a front line starter for the O’s.

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | Facebook

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O’s Mark the Spot

In what has become an epidemic, the Orioles have now signed their brightest star, Nick Markakis to a six-year, $66 million extension.

This contract is the second-largest in club history behind Miguel Tejada‘s six-year, $72 million back in 2003.

Markakis is the center of the O's offense (keithallisonphoto.com)

The 25-year old Markakis had another solid year in 2008 posting a line of .306/.406/.491 with 48 doubles, 20 homers, 87 RBI and 10 stolen bases. As the centerpiece of the Baltimore offense, it was crucial for them to lock him up for the near future.

I hope this is a sign of the Orioles dedication to start turning things around. After sticking in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes until the bitter end this winter, the Orioles have looked (at least publicly) ready to start to compete.

If they are serious about doing this, they will need to make an effort to sign their other star in second baseman Brian Roberts. Roberts has publicly stated that he indeed wants to stay in Baltimore and wants the O’s to sign him long term. However with reports constantly stating the O’s desire to trade the speedster, this deal seems less and less likely.

The signing of Markakis rests on the heals of two trades the Orioles were involved in over the weekend. The first came Sunday when the Orioles sent lefty Garrett Olson and righty Henry Williamson to the Cubs for former star prospect, Felix Pie. Pie had a successful minor league career but was never able to get things going in the bigs. This could partially be due to the lack of consistent play given to the youngster or even Chicago’s horrible ability to cultivate and nourish its young players. Either way the O’s received a solid young player for them to give a chance to.

The second came today as the O’s look to deepen their rather shallow batch of starting pitchers and acquired right-hander David Pauley from their division rival Boston Red Sox sending reliever Randor Bierd to Bean Town. Pauley posted very strong numbers for Triple-A Pawtucket in 2008 with a 14-4 record and 3.55 ERA in 25 starts. This too was a smart move for the Orioles as they acquired a starting pitcher (which they desperately need) who was really never going to get a chance in Boston thanks to their 23-man rotation full of veterans and highly touted youngsters. Look for Pauley to get an opportunity to earn a spot in Baltimore’s rotation in 2009.

With a flurry of fantastic moves over the past two days, the Orioles are making strong strides towards improving their club. They still need to make a big splash move to help this team take the next step.

Here’s hoping they do.

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Other MLB roster moves:
Seattle and enigma Felix Hernandez agree to a one-year contract for $3.8 million, the White Sox and closer Bobby Jenks agree to a one-year $5.6 million contract, Huston Street agrees to a one-year contract worth $4.5 million with Colorado, and the Phillies extend set-up man Ryan Madson’s contract for three-years and $12 million.

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | Facebook

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Top Prospect #25: Chris Tillman

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NAME: Chris Tillman POSITION: Pitcher AGE: 20 | BATS: R | THROWS: R ORGANIZATION: Baltimore Orioles

2008 STATISTICS LVL G IP W-L ERA SO GO/AO MiLB 28 135.2 11-4 3.18 154 0.82 Scouting Report: Acquired before last season in the Erik Bedard trade, he quickly jumped up to number two on my list in 2008 after joining the Orioles organization. But after the O’s drafted Matusz he was bumped down a little here in 2009. Right now Tillman looks to be a power pitcher with a fastball that sits 90-94 mph while at times reaching 96 mph. He also has a plus overhand 12-to-6 curve that falls in the mid-70’s with a nice sharp, late break on it. While Tillman does have a nice frame and mechanics, he will only be able to succeed in the Majors if he can begin to gain a little more control and command of his plus pitches. If he is able to continue to grow and develop in this area, he looks to be a solid number two starter or even a possible ace someday. Very impressive especially considering his age.

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | thefranch15e

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Where Oh Where Will You Go?

His new home isn't as black and white as you may think. (Rod the Rabid Rodent/Flickr)

Before the ink could even dry on C.C. Sabathia’s new monster contract from the New York Yankees, teams immediately turned their attention to the best bat available in this year’s free agent frenzy. In what has become one of the most memorable winters in recent years, Mark Teixeira’s name has been on the lips of many suitors. But it appears as if it is all about to come to an end as WEEI reports today that Karl Ravech of ESPN says we are nearing a dramatic conclusion.

Ravech also reports that the main five players in the Teixeira sweepstakes from the beginning – the Angels, Orioles, Nationals, Red Sox and Yankees – are the same ones who are in it today as they continue trying to one-up themselves with their offers. These offers are landing Big Teix in the $22 – $28 million a year range. So no matter where he chooses, he’ll be doing pretty well for himself.

So with all the offers essentially the same, I thought we’d look at all the teams involved as well as the pros and cons for each of them. Below is a look at these options and we’ll wrap things up with my final analysis of what I believe will happen. These are listed alphabetically and in no particular order:

Angels Reported Offer: 8 years, $160 million
The Angels may be the most desperate of the group as if they lose Teixeira, they lose the biggest piece of their offense. They are able to offer him a very strong chance at the post season as they have dominated the AL West for many years. Of course on the down side, Teixeira has said he wants to play out east as he is originally from Maryland. But again, the Angels need to sign him or they will be in trouble.

Nationals Reported Offer: 8 years, $160 million
Really all the Nationals have to offer Teixeira is money (that I’m not quite sure where they are getting from), the fact that it is near where he grew up and hope. Distant, far away hope that someday (hopefully within the 8 years of his contract) the Washington Nationals can put together a winning club. Of course this leads into the con and the fact that the Nationals can’t really show any progress towards ever winning.

Orioles Reported Offer: 7 years, $140-$150 million
While the Orioles may not be able to offer themselves as an instant contender in 2009, they can offer something none of the other teams can: home. Teixeira grew up in Maryland rooting for the Orioles and has said numerous times how he would love to play where he calls home. As a con they won’t be an instant contender but they do have a great base of youngsters who they can use to build around Teixeira.

Red Sox Reported Offer: 8 years, $160-$200 million
The biggest pros for the Red Sox are they have a great chance for the post season as well as most likely having the deepest pockets of all the teams. The Red Sox can dangle the fact that Teixeira will have a lot of protection in the lineup with the likes of Ortiz, Youkilis and Drew. Of course what happens in Interleague play or even the World Series when the Sox have to choose between Big Papi or Big Teix at first base against NL squads?

Yankees Reported Offer: 8 years, $160-$200 million
Their case is pretty much the exact same as the Red Sox have regarding a chance at the post season, a ton of money and lineup protection. Another thing both these clubs have in common is a less than patient fan base. Teixeira is a notoriously slow starter for the first month or two of the season and it would be interesting to see how Yankee and Red Sox fans treat their club’s newest addition. Not that this is a deterrent, but it’s something to think about.

Now that we’ve taken a peek at all the clubs involved as well as a few pros and cons for each, I believe that we can narrow Teixeira’s choice down to a team that is the best fit for him. In my opinion we can eliminate the Nationals based on the fact that they are going nowhere and probably won’t have a sniff of the playoffs within Teixeira’s potential 8 year contract. That leaves the three heavy hitters and Baltimore. If we go based on playing for a contender we would eliminate Baltimore but if we go based off playing out east we eliminate the Angels.

That brings us down to Boston and New York. It’s funny, it seems as if we always come down to Boston and New York. Both are contenders every season and both seemingly have an endless money tree planted somewhere in the front offices. With that being said, I am going to go out on a limb and say that Mark Teixeira will sign with the Baltimore Orioles. I know many of you probably disagree, but he keeps on mentioning how he wants to go home and play for the team he cheered on growing up. Plus the fact that he would instantly become the franchise player the Orioles have been searching for ever since Cal Ripken retired. He would be the center piece of a great young franchise that has a fan base begging for a chance to reach the playoffs again. It’s a perfect fit.

Now if I were Andy MacPhail, I would be doing everything possible to tug at Teixeira’s heart strings. I’d have current players like Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora and Nick Markakis and legends like Cal Ripken and Jim Palmer on the phone with him as much as possible. They should have courted him and courted him hard.

After all, franchise changing players like Mark Teixeira aren’t always available. When you have a chance to acquire them and beat out giant markets like Boston, New York and Los Angeles, you have to do it.

The Orioles have to do it.

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | thefranch15e

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2009 Top 5 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles have been quietly building a fantastic base of young players in their organization over the past few years. The most impressive part is that it hasn’t been on just one front. They have been doing a great job cultivating their young talent (Nick Markakis and Jeremy Guthrie), acquiring it through trades (Adam Jones and Chris Tillman) and even through drafting (Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz). Adding this stellar crop of youngsters to their base of strong veterans (Melvin Mora and Brian Roberts) and we have seen a nice shift in the way the Orioles do business. They know that in order to compete in the best division in baseball that they have to do things the way the Tampa Bay Rays did it and beat the Red Sox and Yankees into submission with their young talent. With that being said, here are the top five prospects in the Baltimore Orioles system:

1.) Matt Wieters
Position: Catcher | Statistics | Video | 2008 Rank: #1
Bats: Both | Throws: Right | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 230
Scouting Report: Wieters is not only the best Orioles prospect, but he’s the best offensive prospect in all of baseball for 2009. The switch hitting catcher has the tremendous ability to hit for average and power (better hitter from the left side and more power from the right). While he’s only an average catcher at best, if he can improve on his footwork and receiving skills a little more he should be ok. Otherwise a move to another position might be a good idea both defensively and to help preserve his bat. Based on his position and from what Wieters has shown thus far his ceiling looks to be a much more powerful Joe Mauer. That’s how special he is.

2.) Brian Matusz
Position: Pitcher | Statistics | Video | 2008 Rank: NR
Bats: Left | Throws: Left | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 200
Scouting Report: The Orioles have two of the best pitching prospects in the game today with this youngster edging out Tillman. Matusz has a quick, live arm and fantastic command of his stuff. While his fastball can reach the mid-90’s, what makes him so dominant is how he keeps hitters off balance by mixing in a strong change up, power curve and a deceptive 3/4 arm slot. He also throws all three of these pitches for strikes on both sides of the plate which just adds to his effectiveness. The fact that he has harnessed all of these traits at such a young age displays what a strong presence he has on the mound. Look for him to get better and better and become a front line starter for the O’s.

3.) Chris Tillman
Position: Pitcher | Statistics | Video | 2008 Rank: #2
Bats: Right | Throws: Right | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 195
Scouting Report: Acquired last season in the Erik Bedard trade, he quickly jumped up to number two on my list in 2008 after joining the Orioles organization. But after the O’s drafted Matusz he gets bumped down a slot here in 2009. Right now Tillman looks to be a power pitcher with a fastball that sits 90-94 mph while at times reaching 96 mph. He also has a plus overhand 12-to-6 curve that falls in the mid-70’s with a nice sharp, late break on it. While Tillman does have a nice frame and mechanics, he will only be able to succeed in the Majors if he can begin to gain a little more control and command of his plus pitches. If he is able to continue to grow and develop in this area, he looks to be a solid number two starter or even a possible ace someday. Very impressive especially considering his age.

4.) Jake Arrieta
Position: Pitcher | Statistics | Video | 2008 Rank: NR
Bats: Right | Throws: Right | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 225
Scouting Report: Arrieta has shown himself to be a very aggressive and dominating pitcher. This stems from the excellent command he possess of his fastball which tickles 97 mph. His secondary pitches include a solid slider and a developing curve. If he continues to solidify these pitches he can be a good number two starter for the O’s down the road. Arrieta is often overshadowed with Matusz and Tillman garnering most of the attention but if he can harness his control he has a very high ceiling.

5.) Nolan Reimold
Position: Outfield | Statistics | Video | 2008 Rank: #4
Bats: Right | Throws: Right | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 207
Scouting Report: Reimold looks to be a solid corner outfielder of the future for the O’s with a big bat to boot. While it may not be perfect, he posses a very nice swing and a keen eye at the plate. This coupled with a powerful bat will make him a nice addition to the Orioles before too long. Look for a potential 25-30 homers from this kid if he can keep some protection around him in the lineup. My only fear is that he is getting a bit old for a prospect now (he turns 26 next fall) and has still yet to find his place in the Majors. Hopefully he can make an impact and make the club out of spring training.

2008 Rankings: (1) Matt Wieters, (2) Chris Tillman, (3) Troy Patten, (4) Nolan Reimold, (5) Billy Rowell

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | thefranch15e

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2008 Division Predictions: AL East

Now that he’s healthy, Big Papi’s doubles will turn back into long balls. (doogin / flickr)

With the 2008 season opener upon us I figured it would be as good a time as ever to start giving my exciting 2008 division, playoff and award winner picks! We’ll start off by covering each division (one division per day) with the order they will finish along with some brief statements about each team and the standout players from that division. Once all of the divisions are done we will talk playoffs and then finally the 2008 award winners. As always, let me know your opinion on each one!

(click here to continue this article on Baseball Digest Daily)

Catch my “Diamond Cutter” major league coverage now featured on Baseball Digest Daily and my prospect coverage on Big League Futures!

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2008 Top 5 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

As we lead up to both the start of the 2008 season and our “Diamond Cutter” top 100 prospects list, I will be taking a look at the top five prospects from every single Major League team. Each team will have its top five prospects along with a brief scouting report on each player that I have pulled from my scouting notes. Today we jump away from the National League and start digging into the AL East with the prospect hungry Baltimore Orioles. As always, let me know how you feel about the rankings in the comments section below or via email.

1.) Matt Wieters, C: Major League Baseball will soon have yet another strong offensive catcher thrust upon it once Wieters makes his debut. The switch hitting catcher has the tremendous ability to hit for average and power (better hitter from the left side and more power from the right). While he’s only an average catcher at best, if he can improve on his footwork and receiving skills a little more he should be ok. Otherwise a move to another position might be a good idea both defensively and to help preserve his bat.

2.) Chris Tillman, RHP: Just picked up in the Erik Bedard trade, he quickly took over the number two spot on this list thanks to the potential he has in the future. Right now Tillman looks to be a power pitcher with a fastball that sits 90-94 mph while at times reaching 96 mph. He also has a plus overhand 12-to-6 curve that falls in the mid-70’s with a nice sharp, late break on it. While Tillman does have a nice frame and mechanics, he will only be able to succeed in the Majors if he can begin to gain a little more control and command of his plus pitches. If he is able to continue to grow and develop in this area, he looks to be a solid number two starter someday.

3.) Troy Patten, LHP: If Troy Patten can fight off the injuries and his seemingly annual bout of arm fatigue, he will make a very good Major League pitcher. Patten brings his solid stuff and great command of his pitches (two fastballs, slider, and a change) to the Orioles as part of the Miguel Tejada trade with Houston this winter. If he can stay healthy and strong Patten looks like he could iron out to be a solid middle of the rotation type guy that is in high demand these days.

4.) Nolan Reimold, OF: Reimold looks to be a solid corner outfielder of the future for the O’s with a big bat to boot. While it may not be perfect, he posses a very nice swing and a keen eye at the plate. This coupled with a powerful bat will make him a nice addition to the Orioles before too long. Look for a potential 25-30 homers from this kid if he can keep some protection around him in the lineup.

5.) Billy Rowell, 3B: Rowell excites many people at the incredible power potential he posses at the hot corner. With the body frame to continue to pack on muscle along with a very nice swing, the Orioles are hoping he develops into the player they drafted in 2006. After a shaky start and inconsistent year many began to get down on Rowell and began to doubt what they thought he could be. He should be able to bounce back and put up some solid numbers and help anchor the middle of the Baltimore lineup in a few seasons.

(* This list was updated on 2/9/08 after the Erik Bedard trade that brought Chris Tillman and others to the Orioles.)

Catch my column “Twins Killings” every day only on the Most Valuable Network.

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2007 Preview: AL East

It’s Friday which means another division for me to review for the upcoming 2007 season. This is number five with only one to go. If you’d like to review my others, you can click them below:

NL West / NL East / NL Central / AL West

This week’s topic: American League East

The AL East has been a top heavy division for years. It seems as if its the Yankees-Red Sox, Red Sox-Yankees every year. That’s until last season when the Blue Jays were finally able to crack second place after the Red Sox suffered a barrage of injuries at the end of the summer. This year will be no different as the Yankees and Red Sox battle for the top spot but this time with a third dancing partner in Toronto just waiting for their opportunity.

1.) Boston Red Sox
This may be my Sox bias shining through but I have to say, them winning the division makes sense. Not only do they have the best 3-4 punch in baseball (Papi and Manny), but now they have a supporting cast around them that is healthy. Last season, two big pieces to this lineup played injured virtually all season. Centerfielder Coco Crisp and team captain Jason Varitek were plagued with nagging injuries for the whole season and just couldn’t get into any offensive grooves. If Coco can regain his numbers he had in Cleveland in 2004 and 2005 (about .300, 15 HR, 70 RBI, .800 OPS) then all his struggles of last season will be forgotten. The same goes for V-Tek. If he can be healthy all year he will put up a .285 average, 20 homers, 75 RBI which will be huge coming out of that six or seven spot. Plus the addition of a (hopefully healthy) JD Drew will make this a “Yankee type” lineup from top to bottom.

By now you know the name Daisuke Matsuzaka so I won’t go too deep into details about him as he has been (and will be) covered to death. But his presence in this rotation will be enormous. But the big question will be how Jonathan Papelbon adjusts to his new role as a starting pitcher. Last season he hit the league by storm as a closer posting 35 saves with a minuet 0.92 ERA. But due to pitching everyday he developed arm problems and now will be inserted into the starting rotation where he will only have to pitch every fifth day. This will be one of the best rotations in baseball in 2007 if guys like Schilling and Beckett can stay healthy.

Bottom Line: This race is going to come down to the final month if not week. The thing that will carry the Red Sox to the division will be their depth. The Yankees have always been known as the deepest team in their rotation and lineup but the Sox have taken that crown and because of that, will take the division crown.

2.) New York Yankees
Yankees fans had better enjoy Alex Rodriguez while they can because I am almost certain he will opt out after this season. The mistreatment he receives from the New York fans and media is just unacceptable. But putting that aside, its tough to gage how he will react to all this. If he continues to let it get in his head, he will continue to struggle in the field and eventually more at the plate. If that happens, they Yankees will have a lot of trouble contending. But what they will have is a full season of Bobby Abreu and that will be a great thing for this team. Abreu’s move to the Yankees relieved the pressure to hit home runs and now allows him to do what he does best, get on base.

As for the rotation, let’s just assume the Clemens has no intentions of coming back to the Yankees. If that’s the case, this Yankees rotation has some question marks. Setting aside the question of how their rotation will round out, there is always concern when you have two older pitchers. Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.51 ERA) had a very solid season until he ran into some injury troubles down the stretch. If he can regain form along with the returning Andy Pettitte (14-13, 4.20 ERA), then the Yankees will be just fine.

Bottom Line: I just get the feeling that someone in this Yankees rotation is going to get hurt this season and they will end up having to scramble to find a replacement. There’s also the possibility that mega-prospect Philip Hughes could be called up sooner than the September call-ups. This could be a little too fast as the ideal thing would be to wait until 2008. But one thing is for sure, if the Yankees are lagging behind the Sox around the All-Star break, they will go out and fill whatever holes they might have.

3.) Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays quietly snuck into second place last season in the NL East. They were lead by centerfielder Vernon Wells and by less publicized Lyle Overbay. Overbay once again put up great numbers in 2006 (.312/.372/.508, 22 HR, 92 RBI), but this wasn’t the first time. Over the past three seasons Overbay has averaged 20 homers and 45 doubles. He along with veteran free agent slugger Frank Thomas (.270/.381/.545, 39 HR, 114 RBI) have made this middle of the order something to talk about.

The ace of this staff has solidified himself as one of the best in the game. Roy Halladay fought through the injury bug in 2006 to post a 16-5 record and 3.19 ERA. This rotation will live and die by Halladay (much like the Twins and Johan Santana) which means for them to compete in the American League East this season, not only will Halladay have to be healthy all season, but he will also need to post another Cy Young caliber season.

Bottom Line: If the Blue Jays want to compete this season they will need a lot of help from their pitching staff. They have the lineup to compete, but there are some uncertainties at the back end of the rotation. If they can get good starts from them consistently, then they should be right in the thick of the race.

4.) Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are doomed to finish fourth again. There is just too big of a gap in talent level between them and the top three teams in the division. The Orioles did make a move to sign free agent Aubrey Huff during the off season in hopes that he can return to his 2003-2004 form in which he averaged a little over .300, 32 homers, and 105 RBI. If that Huff comes to Baltimore, it will go a long way in their success.

The Baltimore rotation has a lot of holes in it. Other than their ace Erik Bedard (15-11, 3.76 ERA), they have a lot of question marks in it. After Kris Benson bowed out due to injury (apparently he’s not having season ending surgery so who knows what his deal is), the O’s went out and signed veteran right hander Steve Trachsel (15-8, 4.97 ERA with the Mets in 2006) to round out their shaky rotation. This is one of their short comings and will hurt them and prevent them from competing here in 2007.

Bottom Line: Barring any miracles, the O’s are not going to be a factor in 2007. Sure they’ll win some games and go on some runs, but they won’t give the Yanks or Sox any real threat.

5.) Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Now the only reason I have the Devil Rays behind the Orioles is because of the inexperience they have. But where they lack in inexperience, they more than make up for in young, raw talent. Looking at this year’s team and analyzing their farm system, one can see that this team has a very bright future ahead of them. Going into 2007, they have one of the best outfields in the game highlighted by Carl Crawford. Crawford has stayed steady with an over .300 average the past two seasons and had over 50 stolen bases three out of the past four years. Not only that but we have seen his homer and RBI numbers increase each year as well. Now that the Rays have become more offensively potent with players improving and the full-time addition of Delmon Young, they should score more runs which will help them win more games than ever.

While the rotation may not be as strong as the team’s offensive abilities, it is headlined by one of the best young pitchers in the game, Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has shown incredible stuff posting ERAs of 3.77 and 3.24 over the past two years, in particularly against big division foes. In fact, in 2006 Kazmir continued to show his dominance over the big-time AL East teams like the Red Sox (3-1, 2.33 ERA), New York Yankees (0-2, 3.97 ERA), and Toronto Blue Jays (1-0, 1.32 ERA). This guy is only going to get better and is the center piece around the youth movement in Tampa.

Bottom Line: This group that is about to join the major league roster in the next couple of seasons is going to be something special. If Tampa wasn’t stuck in the aggressive alpha-male battle that is the AL East, they could definitely be an interesting team to watch. In the mean time, they will just have to settle for making some noise.