MLB Hot Stove: Willingham & Millwood Rumors

Will Willingham be on the move? (Keith Allison/Flickr)

Two new names that have started popping up in trade rumors are that of outfielder Josh Willingham of the Nationals and pitcher Kevin Millwood of the Rangers. Both for different reasons.

First you have Willingham, a talented 30-year old outfielder who never gets any national attention due to the fact that the only two teams he has ever played for are the Marlins and Nationals. But despite playing for the hapless Nationals last season, Willingham put up a .260/.367/.496 line with 24 homers and 61 RBI while constantly playing hard on every play. This is just the type of player that the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves are in the market for. The only question now is whether or not the Nationals are interested in moving him.

On the other hand, the cash-strapped Rangers look to be freeing up some money this off season by possibly moving their ace Kevin Millwood. Millwood had a strong season posting a 13-10 record, 3.67 ERA and 123 strikeouts last season. Thoughts are the Rangers would like to give themselves a little extra money to try to bring in free agent starting pitcher John Lackey to head up their rotation. One team believed to have inquired about the veteran righty was the Milwaukee Brewers who themselves are looking to bolster their rotation.

At this point these rumors are in early stages so it will be interesting to see if anything develops.

[Update 11/30/09 @ 7:32 PM: The Baltimore Orioles have apparently inquired about Kevin Millwood to help bolster their rotation. This would help give the Rangers salary space to go after Lackey as mentioned above or possibly slugger Jermaine Dye.]

Diamond News: “Dunn Deal”

Apparently Adam Dunn got sick of waiting around for teams to come to their senses and sign him as he has reportedly signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Washington Nationals. While this is a great signing by the desperate Nationals who need a middle-of-the-order impact bat for their punch less lineup, I am less excited to see a bat like Dunn’s be wasted in Washington.

As many of you know I have been a big advocate for a contending team to sign the slugger as I feel they could greatly utilize his on-base abilities and power numbers. But in a strange, penny pinching off season, there didn’t seem to be any people banging down his door for his services.

I am a little surprised that this wasn’t a one-year deal to allow Dunn back out into the wild next season, but I’m guessing the Nationals insisted on it.

Look for Bobby Abreu to be the next off the board…

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
diamondcutter[at]columnist.com

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Where Oh Where Will You Go?

His new home isn't as black and white as you may think. (Rod the Rabid Rodent/Flickr)

Before the ink could even dry on C.C. Sabathia’s new monster contract from the New York Yankees, teams immediately turned their attention to the best bat available in this year’s free agent frenzy. In what has become one of the most memorable winters in recent years, Mark Teixeira’s name has been on the lips of many suitors. But it appears as if it is all about to come to an end as WEEI reports today that Karl Ravech of ESPN says we are nearing a dramatic conclusion.

Ravech also reports that the main five players in the Teixeira sweepstakes from the beginning – the Angels, Orioles, Nationals, Red Sox and Yankees – are the same ones who are in it today as they continue trying to one-up themselves with their offers. These offers are landing Big Teix in the $22 – $28 million a year range. So no matter where he chooses, he’ll be doing pretty well for himself.

So with all the offers essentially the same, I thought we’d look at all the teams involved as well as the pros and cons for each of them. Below is a look at these options and we’ll wrap things up with my final analysis of what I believe will happen. These are listed alphabetically and in no particular order:

Angels Reported Offer: 8 years, $160 million
The Angels may be the most desperate of the group as if they lose Teixeira, they lose the biggest piece of their offense. They are able to offer him a very strong chance at the post season as they have dominated the AL West for many years. Of course on the down side, Teixeira has said he wants to play out east as he is originally from Maryland. But again, the Angels need to sign him or they will be in trouble.

Nationals Reported Offer: 8 years, $160 million
Really all the Nationals have to offer Teixeira is money (that I’m not quite sure where they are getting from), the fact that it is near where he grew up and hope. Distant, far away hope that someday (hopefully within the 8 years of his contract) the Washington Nationals can put together a winning club. Of course this leads into the con and the fact that the Nationals can’t really show any progress towards ever winning.

Orioles Reported Offer: 7 years, $140-$150 million
While the Orioles may not be able to offer themselves as an instant contender in 2009, they can offer something none of the other teams can: home. Teixeira grew up in Maryland rooting for the Orioles and has said numerous times how he would love to play where he calls home. As a con they won’t be an instant contender but they do have a great base of youngsters who they can use to build around Teixeira.

Red Sox Reported Offer: 8 years, $160-$200 million
The biggest pros for the Red Sox are they have a great chance for the post season as well as most likely having the deepest pockets of all the teams. The Red Sox can dangle the fact that Teixeira will have a lot of protection in the lineup with the likes of Ortiz, Youkilis and Drew. Of course what happens in Interleague play or even the World Series when the Sox have to choose between Big Papi or Big Teix at first base against NL squads?

Yankees Reported Offer: 8 years, $160-$200 million
Their case is pretty much the exact same as the Red Sox have regarding a chance at the post season, a ton of money and lineup protection. Another thing both these clubs have in common is a less than patient fan base. Teixeira is a notoriously slow starter for the first month or two of the season and it would be interesting to see how Yankee and Red Sox fans treat their club’s newest addition. Not that this is a deterrent, but it’s something to think about.

Now that we’ve taken a peek at all the clubs involved as well as a few pros and cons for each, I believe that we can narrow Teixeira’s choice down to a team that is the best fit for him. In my opinion we can eliminate the Nationals based on the fact that they are going nowhere and probably won’t have a sniff of the playoffs within Teixeira’s potential 8 year contract. That leaves the three heavy hitters and Baltimore. If we go based on playing for a contender we would eliminate Baltimore but if we go based off playing out east we eliminate the Angels.

That brings us down to Boston and New York. It’s funny, it seems as if we always come down to Boston and New York. Both are contenders every season and both seemingly have an endless money tree planted somewhere in the front offices. With that being said, I am going to go out on a limb and say that Mark Teixeira will sign with the Baltimore Orioles. I know many of you probably disagree, but he keeps on mentioning how he wants to go home and play for the team he cheered on growing up. Plus the fact that he would instantly become the franchise player the Orioles have been searching for ever since Cal Ripken retired. He would be the center piece of a great young franchise that has a fan base begging for a chance to reach the playoffs again. It’s a perfect fit.

Now if I were Andy MacPhail, I would be doing everything possible to tug at Teixeira’s heart strings. I’d have current players like Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora and Nick Markakis and legends like Cal Ripken and Jim Palmer on the phone with him as much as possible. They should have courted him and courted him hard.

After all, franchise changing players like Mark Teixeira aren’t always available. When you have a chance to acquire them and beat out giant markets like Boston, New York and Los Angeles, you have to do it.

The Orioles have to do it.

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | thefranch15e

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2008 Division Predictions: NL East

Big Ryan Howard looks to help his club destroy the Mets for a second straight year. (ebot / flickr)

With the 2008 season opener upon us I figured it would be as good a time as ever to give my exciting 2008 division, playoff and award winner picks! We’ll start off by covering each division (one division per day) with the order they will finish along with some brief statements about each team and the standout players from that division. Once all of the divisions are done we will talk playoffs and then finally the 2008 award winners. As always, let me know your opinion on each one!

(click here to continue this article on Baseball Digest Daily)

Catch my “Diamond Cutter” major league coverage now featured on Baseball Digest Daily and my prospect coverage on Big League Futures!

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2008 Top 5 Prospects: Washington Nationals

As we lead up to both the start of the 2008 season and our “Diamond Cutter” top 100 prospects list, I will be taking a look at the top five prospects from every single Major League team. Each team will have its top five prospects along with a brief scouting report on each player that I have pulled from my scouting notes. Today I finish up the NL East with the Washington Nationals and their vastly improved Minor League system. As always, let me know how you feel about the rankings in the comments section below or via email.

1.) Chris Marrero, OF: The Nationals have a very special hitter topping their list with Marrerro. Marrero can to all fields both for average and for power with his long, upward pushing swing. He also has a great eye at the plate which will make for a nice OBP and force pitchers to pitch to him. Look for him to be an impact player in a few years.

2.) Ross Detwiler, LHP: Though only drafted in 2007 (and pitching one MLB inning last year), look for Detwiler to be part of this club in 2008. He has four great pitches with a two-seam (with nice movement) and four-seam fastball, a nasty curve, and a plus change. He could make his fastballs plus pitches if he tinkers with his delivery a little and doesn’t throw so much across his body in his motion. He will be leading this staff before too long.

3.) Michael Burgess, OF: Another big bat is in Washington’s future with Burgess. The future corner outfielder has tremendous bat speed and hand-eye coordination. This coupled with his incredible raw power potential has the Nationals excited. Good defensively with a very strong arm that will fit in nicely in right field.

4.) Collin Balester, RHP: For Balester to be an effective Major League pitcher, he will need to secure a reliable third pitch. Right now he has a low-90’s fastball and a very good late-breaking curveball. If he can work out the kinks in his change and make it viable option on the mound, he should be a good middle of the rotation pitcher for Washington.

5.) Justin Maxwell, OF: Rounding out the top five is Maxwell who has made a name for himself with his speed and solid glove. Maxwell also continues to improve at the plate where he still doesn’t make great contact but has shown some nice raw power potential for Washington. While he won’t probably make any runs at any batting titles, his defense and speed should help secure him a spot in the Majors.

Catch my column “Twins Killings” every day only on the Most Valuable Network.

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2007 Preview: NL East

Last Friday I covered the NL West (click here to view) and hopefully I portrayed it well enough to show you what a tight race it should be right through the summer. Today’s division should be no different. In fact, due to roster changes (or in some cases, lack thereof), today’s division should be a four-team horse race right until the end.

This week’s topic: National League East

In 2006 the New York Mets dominated not only their own division, but the league as well. While three of the team’s fought hard to get a piece of the Wild Card pie, they all fell short. 2006 also saw the record breaking 14 year run of Atlanta winning the East come to an end. We all knew it would happen someday, and last season, it finally did. While there weren’t too many major moves this off season in the East, there were some nice bits and pieces added to some teams that should make this a very interesting race.

The crazy thing is any of these teams (except the Nationals) can win this division. That’s one of the things I love about Major League Baseball right now. There’s not one division in baseball where you can say for sure who will come out as the top dog. Let’s take a look at how I think things will shake out.

1.) Philadelphia Phillies
Now I know the Phillies are the “hot” pick right now amongst analysts, but I must say I really like the ball club they have put together. Everyone knows the solid lineup they have with masher and 2006 MVP Ryan Howard (.313, 58 HR, 149 RBI) and break through superstar Chase Utley (.309, 32 HR, 102 RBI), but what about the rest of the lineup? There aren’t too many changes from last season’s team that made a playoff run late in the year, but they did fill a hole at third. Free agent Wes Helms joined the Phillies and will be their starting third baseman. Wes had a nice season in 2006 with Florida hitting .329/.390/.575 and an OPS of .965. His .575 slugging percentage will be a nice fit to the lineup and should even increase as he plays half his games in the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. It will be a definite upgrade over David Bell who put up .270/.337/.399 numbers a year ago in the same spot. A little added protection will go a long way behind Utley and Howard.

Another key piece to the puzzle this off season was the acquisition of Freddy Garcia from the White Sox. Garcia put up some impressive numbers in 2006 (17-9, 4.53 ERA) despite his rough patches. He will be a welcomed addition to this bolstered Phillies rotation. He will join an already nicely put together rotation including ace Brett Myers (12-7, 3.91 ERA), Jamie Moyer (5-2, 4.03 ERA after joining the Phillies), Cole Hamels (9-8, 4.08 ERA in his first season) who should make great strides in 2007, and Adam Eaton (7-4, 5.12 ERA) who joined the team after pitching for Texas in 2006.

This rotation is what will end up separating them from the Mets and their lineup will separate them from the Braves to lead them to the NL East crown.

2.) New York Mets
If the New York Mets want to win the NL East again in 2007, there are a few key items that need to go right for them in order to hold off the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies again. The most important item is their starting rotation. They can not afford any injuries or any players to have sub-par seasons. With as many problems as they have had in the past, this has to be one area that doesn’t cause them problems. They look to get their ace Pedro Martinez back sometime around the beginning of July so until then they are going to need to rely on 3 pitchers that haven’t proven they can pitch consistently at the major league level. Their starters will also have to eat up some innings so not to burn out their bullpen too early in the season. If the Mets plan on playing again this October, they will need a fresh bullpen as pitching has shown to be the greatest weapon in the post season.

Their explosive lineup hasn’t changed much from last year and should be as good as ever. The one key addition of Moises Alou should be a big boost in their quest to repeat. While Alou has battled injuries the past couple of seasons, he is still a very solid presence in the lineup. In only 98 games last season, he still hit .301 with 74 RBI with the Giants and looks to put up similar numbers in the already potent Mets lineup. Alou even passed up other 2 year deals with other clubs so he could play for the Mets. They should be very happy with their investment, especially if he can play at least 130 games.

As I stated before, if the Mets have any hopes of competing for their second division crown in as many years, they need for their unproven starting rotation to come through for them. Other than lefty Tom Glavine, they don’t know exactly what they’re going to get. While they do have a steady bullpen, it will wear out mighty quick if the rotation can’t give them 6-7 innings on a regular basis. It won’t be as easy for the Mets in 2007.

3.) Florida Marlins
Now this pick is one I think I will get a few people to argue with me about. In fact, I could see them finish second or even first if teams struggle for too much of the year. You don’t want this group of kids to hang around as they showed in the second half of last year. There’s just too much talent on this team to hold them down.

Everyone knows the name Dontrelle Willis and what he can do, but how about the big steps forward Josh Johnson (12-7, 3.10 ERA) , Anibal Sanchez (10-3, 2.83 ERA), and Scott Olsen (12-10, 4.04 ERA) made in 2006? I don’t know how you feel, but I love this starting rotation. These young arms can carry this team a long way. As I mentioned earlier, the Mets rotation is in shambles and the Braves are shaky. I don’t think its too far fetched to say this rotation alone can carry them very, very far in 2007.

The departure of Wes Helms to the Phillies won’t be missed too much in Florida as now Miguel Cabrera can move to third base full time. The Marlins also have put together one of the best young infields in all of baseball. Between Cabrera (.339 AVG, 26 HR, 114 RBI, .998 OPS), 2006 Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez (.292 AVG, 17 HR, 51 SB), Dan Uggla (.282 AVG, 27 HR, 90 RBI), and Josh Willingham (20 HR, 77 RBI), there’s no reason why this group can’t make a serious run at the division title.

4.) Atlanta Braves
For the second year in a row the Braves will not win the NL East. In my eyes, the Braves took a bit of a step back during the off season. While they have put together the possibly the best bullpen in the National League, they hurt their lineup with the trade of Adam LaRoche. LaRoche’s trade the the Pittsburgh Pirates brought in a nice young closer in Mike Gonzalez, but in doing so they left a large left handed hole in the middle of their lineup. They still have some pop with Andruw Jones (who may not be with the team much longer) and “Frenchy” Jeff Francoeur, but the big bat of LaRoche (32 HR, 90 RBI, .915 OPS) will end up hurting them in a division where the two other big teams they will be squaring off against are stacked with great hitters.

The other issue is with their starting rotation. Remember the Mets rotation did get worse, the Phillies got better, and the Marlins should be even better this year after another year of seasoning. As far as the Braves, well they stayed the same. Of course if they can get the Tim Hudson (14-9, 3.52 ERA) back that they thought they were getting when they extended his contract a couple of years ago, that will be a big help. Last year Hudson had a rough time going 13-12 with a career high 4.86 ERA. If he can bounce back to the man he was prior to 2006, it will be like they signed a brand new player to slide into their rotation.

Bottom line is that regardless of how well their bullpen does it won’t matter if their starters are effective or if they can’t score runs. Of course don’t count them out until they are officially eliminated from post season contention as the Atlanta Braves have always been an organization that finds a way to win.

5.) Washington Nationals
The poor Nationals are in bad shape. Thanks to Major League Baseball running them for the first few years of their existance, very little was spent on their franchise’s scouting and development of players. Because of this they really don’t have a farm system. That combined with no payroll and only one true starter in their rotation makes for a team that is about to have a very long and painful year.

Starting pitcher John Patterson is the only member of the Nationals’ rotation that is a proven starter. The rest is a rag-tag group of no names and long relievers. The only bright spot to their rotation is closer Chad Cordero who it will be difficult to get the ball to as by the time the ninth inning comes, there most likely won’t be a game to save.

The same can be said about their starting lineup. Now that Alfonso Soriano has fled for Chicago, the only real solid player is the budding young third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman had a nice 2006 hitting .287, 20 HR, and 110 RBI for a team that really didn’t score a whole lot. Of course now with no Soriano and Jose Vidro ahead of him, it will be difficult to drive in runs. Plus with no real threat behind him in the lineup, pitchers really have no incentive to go after him. Hopefully Zimmerman is able to jump ship in a few years and join a team where he can show what he is capable of.

Like I said, this team is in horrible shape. I don’t even really remember the Montreal Expos looking this bad. The Expos always at least had a farm system to work with where as the Nationals don’t even have that. Look for them to be the worst team in all of baseball this season losing well over 100 games and giving the improved teams Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay a little extra breathing room.