2008 Division Predictions: AL East

Now that he’s healthy, Big Papi’s doubles will turn back into long balls. (doogin / flickr)

With the 2008 season opener upon us I figured it would be as good a time as ever to start giving my exciting 2008 division, playoff and award winner picks! We’ll start off by covering each division (one division per day) with the order they will finish along with some brief statements about each team and the standout players from that division. Once all of the divisions are done we will talk playoffs and then finally the 2008 award winners. As always, let me know your opinion on each one!

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The Ultimate Question: Hughes or Ellsbury?

It has been discussed for days in the comments section here as well as sites and blogs across the internet. If you were running the Minnesota Twins, who do you want more in a deal for Johan Santana, the young phenom pitcher Phil Hughes or the scrappy table setter Jacoby Ellsbury?

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Passing the Buchholz

Entering Thursday night’s game five in Cleveland, the Boston Red Sox were on the cusp of being eliminated from the playoffs. Despite a dominating win in game one by a score of 10-3, the Sox would go on a tail spin losing their next three games. But thanks to another brilliant performance from their ace and Cy Young candidate Josh Beckett, the Red Sox jumped right back into the series and now head back to Boston. The only problem they face now is that Josh Beckett can’t pitch every game.

To show you just how much they are in need of someone in their rotation to step up, here’s a quick peek at how Red Sox pitchers have done in the ALCS:

Josh Beckett: 2 GS, 2-0, 1.93 ERA, 14.0 IP, 18 SO
Curt Schilling: 1 GS, 0-0, 9.64 ERA, 4.2 IP, 3 SO
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 1 GS, 0-1, 7.71 ERA, 4.2 IP, 6 SO
Tim Wakefield: 1 GS, 0-1, 9.64 ERA, 4.2 IP, 7 SO

Looking quickly at these stats the obvious thing that jumps out is the horrible ERA’s everyone but Beckett have posted. But what might be even scarier is the fact that no one other than Beckett has been able to pitch out of the fifth inning. Not only is that not what you want to see from your starters, but it wears out your bullpen. Oh, and while we are on the subject of bullpens, that hasn’t exactly been rock solid either. Whlie Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima and Mike Timlin (combined 0.00 ERA) have all done well at the ends of games, their middle relief of Manny Delcarmen (16.20 ERA), Eric Gagne (13.50 ERA) and Javier Lopez (36.00 ERA) have been horrible. So basically what I’m saying is that unless Beckett starts, pitches his 7-8 innings, and then hands it over to the late inning guys, the Sox are in trouble. If anyone else starts or you need a bridge from starter to closer with your middle relief, well, let’s just hope Big Papi and the boys can knock in ten runs a game.

This of course (and unfortunately) is not always feasible.

As a proud, long-time member of the Red Sox Nation, what frustrates me more than anything is that all of this could have been avoided. I believe that when the Red Sox management elected to leave top prospect Clay Buchholz off the post season roster, they made a huge mistake.

The young right-hander pitched spectacular for the Red Sox down the stretch run and deserved a spot. In four games (three starts), Buchholz was 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA, 22.2 IP, 22 SO and capped everything off with a no-hitter in Fenway Park against the Baltimore Orioles on September 1. I don’t know about you, but I think his performance down the stretch more than warranted a roster spot. This is especially true considering Matsuzaka’s physical breakdown since mid-August.

Now I know the reason the Red Sox kept him off the playoff roster was because they say he was showing signs of arm fatigue, but I really have to wonder if that was a good enough reason. I know its not worth injuring the top prospect in your system, but at the same time, Buchholz would have been invaluable to this pitching staff in the ALCS. If you don’t want to throw him out there for a start, he would have been great in any one of those games as a middle reliever that you received short outings from your starter (similar to how Lester did the other night). If not, wouldn’t you like the opportunity to run him out there as a spot starter if Wakefield or Matsuzaka continue to struggle? I know I would.

So while I understand wanting to protect your young gun, you have to remember he is just that: young. Young arms have a tendency to bounce back if they are getting tired so even if you wanted to leave him out of the division series against the Angels, adding him before the ALCS would have been the smart thing to do.

But then again what do I know? It’s not like I predicted the collapse of Dice-K during the second half of the season.

Oh wait…

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Dice-K Coming Up Snake Eyes

Daisuke Matsuzaka has hit a wall.

Hard.

In fact, the 27-year old from Tokyo has been under some heavy criticism as of late for possibly not living up to the hype, and $100 million the Red Sox shelled out, that everyone expected from him. But is this criticism warranted? Here’s a look at Dice-K’s 2007 season stats:

GS	W-L	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	BAA
32	15-12	1	0	204.2	191	100	100	25	80	201	4.40	1.32	.246

Now while these stats may not blow your socks off, put aside how much money was spent to bring him here and the fact that he pitched so many years in Japan. For a first year MLB pitcher, those are some pretty good stats. So I really don’t think Matsuzaka can be criticized overall for his play. However his play as of late has been anything but spectacular. Here is a look at some of Matsuzaka’s key numbers since August 15:

GS	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
10	2-5	56	61	44	44	9	29	51	7.07

Like I said, anything but spectacular. He’s posted an ERA of 7.07 and averaged only 5.6 innings per start in his last 10 starts. If Dice-K is going to be criticized, it should be for this stretch, not his season as a whole. But honestly, I don’t think these past two months are really much of a surprise.

When you look at what life as a pitcher was like for Matsuzaka before coming to America, his struggles as of late aren’t too much of a shock. In Japan, Matsuzaka was part of a six-man rotation which gave the starter an extra day or two in between starts. Tack these days on top of themselves and that really starts taking a toll on someone not used to it. Another factor that has come into play is the fact that the season in Japan ended almost four weeks ago. This means Dice-K’s body is conditioned to have been done pitching for almost a month now. So when all the days between these two reasons come together, you are looking at around the time when Dice-K started to break down. It all comes together with a big shinny bow.

Now I’m not being an apologist for Dice-K because I’m a Red Sox fan, but I do want to help show some of the factors that are contributing to the starter’s troubles. This is why I’m a little perplexed as to why the Sox didn’t ease up on Matsuzaka a little down the stretch and give him more rest between starts. I know you can only do so much of this as you have a rotation to adhere to, but thinking ahead to having a fully rested star pitcher should also be a top priority. These ideas of why Daisuke has struggled can’t be news to the Red Sox can they? I mean if I broke it down and was able to come up with this logical reasoning you’d think a world class team like the Sox would have a clue too, right?

I guess they are just planning to roll the Dice-K for the rest of the season and hope they don’t crap out.

(And yes the last statement was in regards to the game craps. After all, this is a family site.)

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Manny Being Manny

This video of Manny Ramirez’s walk-off three run homer last night tells it all and is better than anything I could ever write about it. As a die hard Sox fan, I still have goosebumps.

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2007 Preview: AL East

It’s Friday which means another division for me to review for the upcoming 2007 season. This is number five with only one to go. If you’d like to review my others, you can click them below:

NL West / NL East / NL Central / AL West

This week’s topic: American League East

The AL East has been a top heavy division for years. It seems as if its the Yankees-Red Sox, Red Sox-Yankees every year. That’s until last season when the Blue Jays were finally able to crack second place after the Red Sox suffered a barrage of injuries at the end of the summer. This year will be no different as the Yankees and Red Sox battle for the top spot but this time with a third dancing partner in Toronto just waiting for their opportunity.

1.) Boston Red Sox
This may be my Sox bias shining through but I have to say, them winning the division makes sense. Not only do they have the best 3-4 punch in baseball (Papi and Manny), but now they have a supporting cast around them that is healthy. Last season, two big pieces to this lineup played injured virtually all season. Centerfielder Coco Crisp and team captain Jason Varitek were plagued with nagging injuries for the whole season and just couldn’t get into any offensive grooves. If Coco can regain his numbers he had in Cleveland in 2004 and 2005 (about .300, 15 HR, 70 RBI, .800 OPS) then all his struggles of last season will be forgotten. The same goes for V-Tek. If he can be healthy all year he will put up a .285 average, 20 homers, 75 RBI which will be huge coming out of that six or seven spot. Plus the addition of a (hopefully healthy) JD Drew will make this a “Yankee type” lineup from top to bottom.

By now you know the name Daisuke Matsuzaka so I won’t go too deep into details about him as he has been (and will be) covered to death. But his presence in this rotation will be enormous. But the big question will be how Jonathan Papelbon adjusts to his new role as a starting pitcher. Last season he hit the league by storm as a closer posting 35 saves with a minuet 0.92 ERA. But due to pitching everyday he developed arm problems and now will be inserted into the starting rotation where he will only have to pitch every fifth day. This will be one of the best rotations in baseball in 2007 if guys like Schilling and Beckett can stay healthy.

Bottom Line: This race is going to come down to the final month if not week. The thing that will carry the Red Sox to the division will be their depth. The Yankees have always been known as the deepest team in their rotation and lineup but the Sox have taken that crown and because of that, will take the division crown.

2.) New York Yankees
Yankees fans had better enjoy Alex Rodriguez while they can because I am almost certain he will opt out after this season. The mistreatment he receives from the New York fans and media is just unacceptable. But putting that aside, its tough to gage how he will react to all this. If he continues to let it get in his head, he will continue to struggle in the field and eventually more at the plate. If that happens, they Yankees will have a lot of trouble contending. But what they will have is a full season of Bobby Abreu and that will be a great thing for this team. Abreu’s move to the Yankees relieved the pressure to hit home runs and now allows him to do what he does best, get on base.

As for the rotation, let’s just assume the Clemens has no intentions of coming back to the Yankees. If that’s the case, this Yankees rotation has some question marks. Setting aside the question of how their rotation will round out, there is always concern when you have two older pitchers. Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.51 ERA) had a very solid season until he ran into some injury troubles down the stretch. If he can regain form along with the returning Andy Pettitte (14-13, 4.20 ERA), then the Yankees will be just fine.

Bottom Line: I just get the feeling that someone in this Yankees rotation is going to get hurt this season and they will end up having to scramble to find a replacement. There’s also the possibility that mega-prospect Philip Hughes could be called up sooner than the September call-ups. This could be a little too fast as the ideal thing would be to wait until 2008. But one thing is for sure, if the Yankees are lagging behind the Sox around the All-Star break, they will go out and fill whatever holes they might have.

3.) Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays quietly snuck into second place last season in the NL East. They were lead by centerfielder Vernon Wells and by less publicized Lyle Overbay. Overbay once again put up great numbers in 2006 (.312/.372/.508, 22 HR, 92 RBI), but this wasn’t the first time. Over the past three seasons Overbay has averaged 20 homers and 45 doubles. He along with veteran free agent slugger Frank Thomas (.270/.381/.545, 39 HR, 114 RBI) have made this middle of the order something to talk about.

The ace of this staff has solidified himself as one of the best in the game. Roy Halladay fought through the injury bug in 2006 to post a 16-5 record and 3.19 ERA. This rotation will live and die by Halladay (much like the Twins and Johan Santana) which means for them to compete in the American League East this season, not only will Halladay have to be healthy all season, but he will also need to post another Cy Young caliber season.

Bottom Line: If the Blue Jays want to compete this season they will need a lot of help from their pitching staff. They have the lineup to compete, but there are some uncertainties at the back end of the rotation. If they can get good starts from them consistently, then they should be right in the thick of the race.

4.) Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are doomed to finish fourth again. There is just too big of a gap in talent level between them and the top three teams in the division. The Orioles did make a move to sign free agent Aubrey Huff during the off season in hopes that he can return to his 2003-2004 form in which he averaged a little over .300, 32 homers, and 105 RBI. If that Huff comes to Baltimore, it will go a long way in their success.

The Baltimore rotation has a lot of holes in it. Other than their ace Erik Bedard (15-11, 3.76 ERA), they have a lot of question marks in it. After Kris Benson bowed out due to injury (apparently he’s not having season ending surgery so who knows what his deal is), the O’s went out and signed veteran right hander Steve Trachsel (15-8, 4.97 ERA with the Mets in 2006) to round out their shaky rotation. This is one of their short comings and will hurt them and prevent them from competing here in 2007.

Bottom Line: Barring any miracles, the O’s are not going to be a factor in 2007. Sure they’ll win some games and go on some runs, but they won’t give the Yanks or Sox any real threat.

5.) Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Now the only reason I have the Devil Rays behind the Orioles is because of the inexperience they have. But where they lack in inexperience, they more than make up for in young, raw talent. Looking at this year’s team and analyzing their farm system, one can see that this team has a very bright future ahead of them. Going into 2007, they have one of the best outfields in the game highlighted by Carl Crawford. Crawford has stayed steady with an over .300 average the past two seasons and had over 50 stolen bases three out of the past four years. Not only that but we have seen his homer and RBI numbers increase each year as well. Now that the Rays have become more offensively potent with players improving and the full-time addition of Delmon Young, they should score more runs which will help them win more games than ever.

While the rotation may not be as strong as the team’s offensive abilities, it is headlined by one of the best young pitchers in the game, Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has shown incredible stuff posting ERAs of 3.77 and 3.24 over the past two years, in particularly against big division foes. In fact, in 2006 Kazmir continued to show his dominance over the big-time AL East teams like the Red Sox (3-1, 2.33 ERA), New York Yankees (0-2, 3.97 ERA), and Toronto Blue Jays (1-0, 1.32 ERA). This guy is only going to get better and is the center piece around the youth movement in Tampa.

Bottom Line: This group that is about to join the major league roster in the next couple of seasons is going to be something special. If Tampa wasn’t stuck in the aggressive alpha-male battle that is the AL East, they could definitely be an interesting team to watch. In the mean time, they will just have to settle for making some noise.

Manny Faces

There has been a lot of chatter the past couple of days about Manny Ramirez and his lackadaisical attitude towards his responsibilities as a professional ball player. Sure the way he carries himself isn’t exactly the conventional way, but the fact that people are surprised by his recent actions just doesn’t make sense to me.

For years now the Boston Red Sox, Red Sox Nation, and the media have known this is who Manny is. Sometime Manny gets caught up in his own world and can flake out a bit. But you know what? When you have someone as talented as Mr. Ramirez, you take the good with the bad. The Red Sox knew when they gave him that long-term contract what kind of personality he had and accepted that knowing full well that he also brought you a yearly average of about .320, 35-40 home runs, and about 120-130 RBI. Not only that but his teammates love him (other than the flaking out) and he is beloved by Sox fans everywhere.

MANNY RAMIREZ STATISTICS
YEAR	AVG	R	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
2006	.321	79	35	102	.439	.619	1058
Career	.314	1258	470	1516	.411	.600	1011

Now I’m in no way defending what Manny does when he pulls this kind of stuff on his team, but I am saying that no one should be this surprised. While I am a bit biased being a Sox fan and the fact that Manny has always been one of my favorite players, I can look at this logically and tell you that the old saying “Manny being Manny” isn’t just some random adage.

It’s a way of life.

What Did Johnny Damon Do?

Once again, the Boston Red Sox have been one of the most active teams this off season in hopes of bringing another championship back to Bean Town. To keep up with their arch rival New York Yankees, the Red Sox find themselves trying to do everything possible to bolster their already potent lineup. While the Yankees took a different route to better their team by the old “addition by subtraction” rule (for the first time that I can ever remember) and cutting contracts of older players such as Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield, the Red Sox have followed the old beaten path of the Yankees and throwing large contracts at anything that moves. One of the largest and most talked about moves was that of the JD Drew signing that took over a month to complete. While everyone in Red Sox Nation was up in arms about this contract being given to Drew because of his injury history and less than explosive stats, my reason for questioning it was different. Why wasn’t this money given to Johnny Damon?

In December of 2005 Johnny Damon was in contract talks with the Boston Red Sox. He and his agent, Scott Boras, were looking to lock in a long term deal with a team that he had not only won the World Series with, but also achieved rock star status. Damon was a beloved member of the Red Sox and wanted to finish his career as one of the “Idiots.” Boras brought a 7 year, $84 million contract to Sox CEO Larry Lucchino in which the acting GM (since the departure of Epstein a couple of months earlier) turned around and offered less years and less money with 4 years, $40 million. Boras and Damon quickly turned this down and wanted to renegotiate a different deal since they were so far off. When Lucchino put the contract issue aside, the Yankees swooped in and offered 4 years at $52 million. No counter offer was made and one of the most beloved players from the 2004 champs had just joined the enemy. Red Sox Nation revolted at Damon calling him “traitor”, “Johnny Demon”, and a variety of other colorful new nicknames.

After a very nice 2006 campaign with his new team, Johnny Damon seems to have stuck it to his former team for not taking the time to address his contract. It almost felt as if they had a “who cares” mentality. So after disrespecting Damon, the Red Sox ended up losing him to their arch enemy/division rival for a mere $3 million a year. Last season Damon really stuck it to his former team by posting a .324 AVG, 6 doubles, 4 HR, and 13 RBI against the Sox.

So now with the history of the Damon-to-Yankees saga covered, I have to pose a question that has been confusing me ever since the Drew signing was first brought up: why are the Red Sox willing to give all that money to an outside player with injury question marks only a year after passing on a more talented player that was a beloved part of their organization? It makes no sense to me.

I’ve heard some arguments defending the JD Drew signing as it will give them a powerful bat to hit behind Manny Ramirez. I’m not arguing this at all. I applaud the Sox for adding a clause to the contract that if Drew misses too much time due to his bad shoulder that they are able to void the end of his contract. I’m not even arguing one piece of this signing other than the fact that they weren’t willing to sign Damon last off season yet have no problem throwing money around now. Over the weekend I argued my opinion to people and let them know I was planning on writing this article. They said the Drew is a better fit for what they need in their lineup. I told them they are wrong. Then I hit them with the numbers these two have put up over the last three seasons (also remember Damon is a leadoff hitter and Drew was a clean up/five hole hitter):

Damon 2004: [150 games – .304/.380/.477, 123 R, 20 HR, 94 RBI, 19 SB]
Drew 2004: [145 games – .305/.436/.569, 118 R, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 12 SB]

Damon 2005: [148 games – .316/.366/.439, 117 R, 10 HR, 75 RBI, 18 SB]
Drew 2005: [72 games – .286/.412/.520, 48 R, 15 HR, 36 RBI, 1 SB]

Damon 2006: [149 games – .285/.359/.482, 115 R, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 25 SB]
Drew 2006: [146 games – .283/.393/.498, 84 R, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 2 SB]

Now I’m in no way knocking Drew’s stats, but if you look at the comparisons, Damon had very similar stats (if not better in some cases) out of the leadoff spot than Drew had as a clean up/number five hitter. In fact one could argue that Drew is a very below average middle of the order hitter if you compare him to other’s who bat in the same spot. If I had my choice of whether to sign Damon or Drew to multi-year deals I would hands down choose Damon because of everything he brings to the table. It’s so hard to find an elite lead off hitter (especially one that you could just as easily plug into the number three spot in your order) like Damon. It’s even harder to find an athlete that was as beloved to a fan base as Damon was.

The meaning of this article was in no way to bash JD Drew or the signing of him. Rather it was just an opportunity to point out what a major mistake the Red Sox made in their judgment. Signing an overall less valuable player to more money and more years than they were offering one of their franchise guys a mere 12 months previously is something that will continue to haunt the Sox in the years to come.

Of course if this up coming season Drew ends up hitting .300 while knocking out 30 homers and driving in over 100 RBI and protecting Manny Ramirez in the process, then just pretend I never wrote this.

Manny Finally Being Manny

Manny’s box score last night:
3-4, 2 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Hit go ahead 3-run HR in bottom of the 8th

Leading (Off) by Example

“YOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUK”

For those of you who have been to or seen a Red Sox home game this season, you know what this means. In fact any Red Sox fan will know exactly what I’m talking about. The rest of you are probably completely confused.

Well that chant has been heard all around Fenway this season as Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis continues to impress fans and players alike. When Coco Crisp went on the DL earlier in the season, the Red Sox were caught in a bind. The man they traded for to fill the empty leadoff spot previously held by Johnny Damon was now empty once more. Most managers would turn towards a “typical” leadoff hitter. Someone with speed, someone with experience, someone who could wreak havoc on the base paths. Well manager Terry Francona decided to try something different. He decided to go with someone who didn’t do any of those things.

Kevin Youkilis is anything but a speed burner. In fact, in 130 career games, he has 0 steals in 2 attempts. But one thing Youkilis does do – that I believe is even more important than speed – is get on base. I took the liberty to calculate how he’s done this season in the 9 games he’s been in the leadoff spot and I think you’ll see what I mean:

.354 (11-31), 8 runs, 6 RBI, 6 walks

That’s pretty impressive for someone who has never had that responsibility. Then I decided to take it one step further for any critics who think it’s more important to have speed at the top of the lineup. So here are five of the “best” leadoff hitters in the game and how they have faired this season in relation to Youkilis:

Carl Crawford
AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS
.262 / .338 / .311 / .649

Juan Pierre
AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS
.271 / .295 / .339 / .634

Rafael Furcal
AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS
.230 / .347 / 246 / .593

Ichiro Suzuki
AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS
.232 / .329 / .304/ .633

Johnny Damon
AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS
.293 / .373 / .466 / .839

Kevin Youkilis
AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS
.346 / .435 / .519 / .955

I don’t know about you, but I want a guy who’s actually going to be on base for the middle of the lineup. Just look at what horrible on base percentages Ichiro, Pierre, and Crawford have. That’s not helping at all.

In fact if you want to see some of what Youkilis has brought to that spot this season, find a clip of his first at bat of last nights game. I follow the Red Sox closely and have gotten a chance to see many of his at bats this season, but that at bat last night showed just why he has been so invaluable this season to the Sox.

Scott Kazmir was on the mound for the Devil Rays in last night’s ballgame. Kazmir is one of the brightest young left handed pitchers in baseball today and has always faired well against the Red Sox. Kevin Youkilis stepped up to plate to start the game in the home half of the first inning. He took his normal spot at the very back of the batters box and proceeded to work Scott Kazmir like a 10 year vet. He fouled off tough pitch after tough pitch and drew a 3-2 count. After nine grueling pitches, Youkilis took a 3-2 fast ball and drove it off the Green Monster in left center field for a leadoff double. Not only did this help wear down the young pitcher, but it also gave his teammates a chance to see some pitches before stepping to the plate. A beautiful at bat for a leadoff hitter. You just don’t see that as much anymore.

So you can see what makes him so valuable at the top of the order for the Red Sox while Crisp gets healthy. While Kevin Youkilis won’t send the opposing pitcher into fits having to keep an eye on him on the base paths, he sure will give him a headache at the plate.

In addition to their stellar starting pitching this season and despite Manny Ramirez hitting .259 this season with 0 home runs, Kevin Youkilis is a huge reason why the Red Sox have the best record in baseball this season.

After all, speed doesn’t do any good when you’re sitting on the bench.