News and Notes: “Mop-Up Duty”

Ace Cole Hamels is the latest to sign long-term with the team he loves (BernMarsh/Flickr).

Today’s “News and Notes” is going to be a delightful hodgepodge of baseball stuff all thrown together. Sort of like a long reliever in some mop-up duty, I have a large array of items to get through and clean house with. Ok, that’s a bit of a stretch, but whatever. Hopefully it sticks to the wall and we can call it a big win. Now on to the news and/or notes…

Boston has inked the heart of their team for years (keithallisonphoto.com)

MLB NEWS
• Two of baseball’s biggest contenders were able to avoid arbitration with one their best players and signed each of them to deals this past week. First Boston signed their first baseman Kevin Youkilis to a four-year, $41 million deal, then Philadelphia followed suit and inked up their ace Cole Hamels to a three-year, $20.5 million contract. Both of these were fantastic signings by these clubs as not only did they prevent having to deal with arbitration, but now they each have one of their stars locked up for the next few seasons. Not only that, but both teams received “hometown discounts” with their players as each made it clear they wanted to stay with their organizations. While this helps out the Red Sox (who also received a great deal locking 2008 MVP Dustin Pedroia up long term earlier this winter) and Phillies tremendously, it hurts free agents still looking for teams as well as other players who are coming up on arbitration situations. Clubs now have an opportunity to say to their players, “if a reigning MVP (Pedroia), a man many believe should have won the MVP (Youkilis) and a playoff hero and rising star (Hamels) all took discounts, why can’t you?” I believe this will play a large part in many team’s negotiating tactics very, very soon.

• It appears as if Frank Wren has finally woken up in Atlanta after landing Derek Lowe this week to head up his staff in 2009. I discussed this about a week ago in a “GM for a Day” article stating how the Braves could not afford to let Lowe get away from them like AJ Burnett and John Smoltz did. In fact, it now looks as if the Braves are taking a little more of my advice and looking to bring both Tom Glavine and Andruw Jones back to Atlanta. I’m not sure if Wren returned from an extended vacation or started reading this site, but either way, it’s nice to have you back.

BASEBALL BLOGGER NEWS
• Patrick Sullivan wrote a fantastic article for Baseball Analysts depicting how unjust (and uneducated) some baseball writers are in their selection process for the Hall of Fame. He breaks it down and shows how individual awards (MVP, Cy Young) are weighed too heavily by many writers and the player’s statistics in his era should mean more. Check it out.

• My old Minnesota Twins discussion buddy Nick Nelson has posted his Minnesota Twins top 10 prospect list over at his site Nick & Nick Twins Blog. My Twins Top 5 prospects list should be up very soon and I look forward to getting Nick’s thoughts on this as well.

• I finally picked up my edition of “The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2009” the other day at Barnes and Noble. I had been looking for it for a while now in bookstores as I was too lazy to order it online (even though I’m on a computer a lot). I’ve been trying to find some uninterrupted time to dig into it and I think I finally have some today. So far it has been a great read and I highly recommend it. I’ve spoken before about how much I enjoy The Hardball Times site and thus far the book hasn’t disappointed. I’ll give you more updates as I go.

DIAMOND CUTTER NEWS & NOTES
I just wanted to take a look ahead at what is coming up here on “The Diamond Cutter” over the next week or two as I have been receiving some emails as of late wondering.

Click above for Top 25 Prospects!

• The Top 25 Prospects list will continue to take shape as I gradually unveil them one at a time. We will also see the return of the Top 5 Prospects by organization return in the next day or so after a brief hiatus. I wanted to try to space these out a bit so they don’t get too mundane and repetitive. I want to keep these fresh!

• I am currently in the process of working on a couple of larger articles that are taking quite a bit of time. One is a detailed biography of a future Hall of Famer (I assume they will be in the Hall based on their historic statistics, but of course I could be wrong based on if the Baseball Writers Association has a predetermined bias against him already) who I will name at a later date and the other article is a continuation of the “Deconstructing Series” (click here for the first one about Andruw Jones’ collapse) where I will be discussing the rise and fall of Dwight Gooden. Stay tuned for both of those…

• The next couple of weeks will also be another interview (click here for my last one with Red Sox prospect Jeff Natale) that I am in the process of setting up with Toronto Blue Jay catching prospect, JP Arencibia. He has already graciously agreed to speak with me and now it’s just a matter of finding a time for us to meet.

• As spring training draws closer and closer, I will continue the “GM for a Day” series as well as start reviewing each division which will ultimately lead to one of my favorite parts, the predictions for the 2009 season. This is always a fun time as I compile everything that has happened over the winter and smash it into each team to see if we can make some sense out of the upcoming season. I also ask for a large amount of participation from you the reader during this time as I feel it makes it a whole lot more interesting.

Stay tuned for all this and don’t hesitate letting me know if there are more things you want to see more (or less) of.

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | Facebook

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News and Notes: “Damn Yankees”

Teixeira was the cherry on top of the expensive winter for the Yankees (Rod/Flickr).

• After a spending spree this winter by the New York Yankees, more and more owners are coming out stating that they believe baseball should institute a salary cap. While this is a good idea in theory, it is too little too late for baseball ever establishing a cap. With a strong players union that will never agree to such a thing, the pie in the sky dreams of a cap will never become a reality in our lifetime. I do think that a salary floor needs to be set so teams are forced to spend at least a certain amount of money rather than pocketing any revenue sharing they may receive. This will help keep things more competitive and help prevent teams from tanking a season before it even starts. We have seen signs of that recently and is not fair to fans of that team who pay good money and spend time following them. It is a mess that we all just have to deal with.

Millar is as good a leader in the clubhouse as they get (keithallisonphoto.com).

• Not only are the Cincinnati Reds in the market for an outfielder, they are also on the lookout for a pinch-hitter who can provide some power for them in late innings. Players mentioned were Richie Sexson, Daryle Ward, Kevin Millar, Nomar Garciaparra, Mike Sweeney and Rich Aurilia. While none of those names jump off the page at you, some are obviously better fits than others. While Sexson’s name bring with it a lot of past power and success, it also brings a big question mark due to his inconsistencies the past couple of seasons. Of that group I would have to go with Kevin Millar (I’m a big Millar guy). Not only does Millar still have some good pop in his bat (20 homers last season with Baltimore) but he is also a fantastic clubhouse guy and leader. If the Reds are serious about putting together a contender, this is the type of guy they are going to need.

• As the Dodgers welcome in new reliever Guillermo Mota today, they prepare to part ways with Andruw Jones one way or another. While adding more depth to their bullpen with Mota it appears as if Jones’ time with the Dodgers is officially over. As Thursday draws near he will either be out the door via trade or via a cut. I discussed Jones and his fall from grace in my article “Deconstructing Andruw Jones” and tried to get to the bottom of his sudden collapse from super stardom.

I still think Jones has something left in the tank and after seeing him recently, is in fantastic shape. I also still believe that his best bet is returning to the Braves. Not only would the fans welcome him back with open arms, he has a history there and won’t feel the “big city” pressure he did in L.A. Hopefully he can regain some of that magic from his career prior to 2007 when it all started to crumble.

Byrd will most likely join a contender this summer (DDanzig/Flickr).

• Apparently Paul Byrd thinks that he can come and go as he pleases after it was announced Byrd would sit out the first half of the 2009 season. Claiming he wants to spend more time with his family (what players don’t?) he said he will bypass some nice offers on the table to come back this summer. From a front office standpoint, GMs have to love this with the option of getting a solid, fresh number five starter down the stretch. On the other hand I think Byrd’s potential teammates might not like him just rolling into town and joining the party so late in the season. We will have to wait and see how this all comes together this summer, but rest assured there will be many teams lining up for him.

• The “News and Notes” articles will now end with a link to a story elsewhere on the net that I find interesting and want to share with you. This is a good way to broaden everyone’s horizons, show some love to my fellow writers and maybe even help you find another site you’d like to work into your rotation. Of course without cutting me out of it.

Today’s is from one of my favorite sites “The Hardball Times” where columnist Chris Jaffe discusses just how incredible Rickey Henderson truly was in his article “The Wonder of Rickey.” I was a huge fan of Rickey growing up as he revolutionized the lead off spot and set the bar incredibly high for those following him.

Congrats Rickey.

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | Facebook

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Deconstructing Andruw Jones

Andruw Jones with a long walk back to the dugout after yet another strikeout (kla4067/Flickr).

In 1996, nobody outside of Atlanta had ever heard of the 19-year old center fielder named Andruw Jones. In fact, even those who closely followed the Braves hadn’t heard much more about him other than the fact that they have had him locked up since the ripe old age of 16.

That was until his first two World Series at bats in historic Yankee Stadium.

Back then prospects weren’t as highly tracked or widely discussed as they are now. If word on some fresh young talent made its way up to a team’s typical fans it meant they were something big. But to have info on a Braves prospect available to typical fans in say Seattle, it was much less common than it has become here in 2009 where detailed scouting reports and ranked lists tell you everything you need to know.

So I can say first hand when I was watching the ’96 series as a 17-year old and saw this unknown teenager step up to the plate, I was with the majority of the country when I said “who?”

As true baseball fans we can always remember big moments in our favorite pastime. World Series moments especially have a way of ingraining themselves into our heads. Watching a relatively unknown teenager hit not one but two home runs in his first two at bats of a World Series in Yankee Stadium as a visitor is one of those moments that stick with someone.

And I’m sure it stuck with Andruw too.

And I’m sure the success Jones had over his great stretch with Atlanta has stuck with him too. In fact that might be part of the reason he’s have such a tough time rebuilding his once stellar career. But we’ll get to that in a moment. In the mean time I have to ask the question of what happened in the world of Andruw Jones to cause such a dramatic collapse of one of baseball’s brightest stars?

Before we dive into what some of the causes could have been, we need to look at what kind of collapse we are talking about. Take a look at Andruw’s career numbers and the dive they started taking immediately after his giant offensive seasons of 2005 and 2006.

As you can see Jones was pretty consistent in most of his offensive statistics from about 1998-2004 with the exception of stolen bases which started a dramatic drop off in 2000. But then 2005 came and we saw an incredible jump in home run totals for Jones. From 1998-2004 Jones averaged a little better than 32 homers, 98 RBI and hit .272 during that span including seven straight Gold Gloves. These were very strong numbers and any team would have loved to have that type of averaged stats from their center fielder despite a 18.76 K%.

Jones takes his lead while with the Braves (Dianne Pike/Flickr).

Then the two big years (2005-06) came for Jones in which he hit .262, crushed 92 homers and drove in 257 RBI with a K% of 17.82. Those are huge numbers for anyone over a two year period and it was an incredible jump in power numbers. Over those two seasons it was way off his normal trend which saw a jump in homers average from 32 to 46 and RBI average jump from 98 to 129. His batting average however took a dive from .272 the previous seven seasons down to .263. Basically 2005 and 2006 were mirror images of each other except 10 less homers which look to have translated into a few more doubles.

At first look you may think that this was just a fluke and that was the reason for the large jump in numbers. But flukes are usually the result of one big season and Jones strung together two virtually identical giant years. A big reason for the increase in power was due to Jones opening up his stance and driving through the ball more. He made this adjustment before the 2005 season and ran with it. As you can see this adjustment made a huge difference almost immediately and helped solidify the heart of the Braves order. Everything was going fantastic for Jones especially with his contract coming up after the 2007 season. If he could continue his success he would be seeing an enormous payday heading into the winter of ’07.

Unfortunately for Jones, his 2007 season saw a tremendous drop off in numbers. Not only did his homers (26) and RBI (94) numbers drop off significantly, we saw his batting average drop 29 points below his lowest thus far (2001) and an astonishing 48 point drop from his lowest slugging year (2001). To say Jones had hit a low was an understatement and it couldn’t have come at a worse time for him with his contract coming due that winter.

Luckily for Jones he had super agent Scott Boras by his side and if there’s one thing we have learned, Boras clients never lose out on a big payday. Boras used his slimy ways and was able to convince the Los Angeles Dodgers that Jones was the man they wanted patrolling center heading into the 2008 season. So in typical Boras fashion, he was able to spin Jones’ awful 2007 campaign off as just a fluke season and that he truly was the player they’d seen the previous years. Jones then signed a two-year, $36.2 million contract while Boras laughed all the way to the bank.

This is where the story really turns out ugly for the Dodgers. Not only did the Andruw Jones from ’05-’06 not show up, the Andruw Jones with the horrible numbers from 2007 didn’t even show up. All they received was an overweight, overpaid ball player with the same name.

Things just got worse following spring training as not only did Jones suffer injuries allowing him only 209 at bats, but when he was in the lineup he posted a putrid .158/.256/.249 line with 76 strikeouts causing a K% of 31.93 which I still have trouble wrapping my head around. Not only did Jones waste $14.7 million of the Dodgers money last season, he was a liability to have in the already punch-less Dodgers lineup.

Now that we’ve assessed the mess that has amassed for Andruw Jones, let’s take a look at what could be at the root of the issues.

I’ve already addressed and disregarded his two big seasons as being flukes especially considering he was a star before those happened. Some say that Jones’ weight issues and fluctuations have caused to part of the problem. While this may have a tiny effect on him at the plate, I don’t see it being that much of an impact. If anything it would have more of an effect on his defense and wouldn’t explain his troubles at the plate. Others have said that it could be his age that is catching up with him. I also find this one hard to believe considering he is only 31-years old and hasn’t shown any drastic signs of premature aging. Not only that but Jones has been a healthy and durable player for his entire career previous to this as he has never played less than 153 games since 1997. So that discounts any lingering injury that might be plaguing him. So what is it?

To see what type of a hitter he is at the plate, let’s take a look at my scouting report I wrote about Andruw during the 2008 season:

Andruw Jones has a very original and now counterproductive approach at the plate. He widened his stance at the plate back in 2005 which lead him to great success. His stance now has become even more spread out and that hurts him when he’s out in front of a pitch and can’t stay balanced. This coupled with a maximum effort swing which produces a violent motion a lot of torque only adds to his recent troubles. He has incredible raw power and kills fastballs and mistake breaking balls when he’s locked in. The trouble is that he hasn’t really been locked in since 2006 and has spiraled downhill since. He has lost total control of the strike zone and is swinging at balls up, down and off the plate. This coupled with his erratic swing which isn’t one which mechanically can be easily adjusted to help break free from a slump, has caused Jones to drift deeper and deeper into a giant funk that may end up causing him to find himself out of baseball for good.

Not exactly the glowing report I wanted to give to him but the fact is fact. Jones’ has completely lost himself at the plate. The problem is that this has gone on for so long that he may not be able to find his way out of it. For hitters like Jones who aren’t fundamentally sound with their swings to begin with, it’s even more difficult to pull them out of their slumps once they are stuck in it. You can’t adjust their swing and get them back to basics when they didn’t really ever use the basics to begin with.

I believe Jones’ issues stem from not only his unconventional approaches at the plate and the fact that it is now stuck in his head, but the fact that he had two huge years in Atlanta and pressed himself too hard to keep repeating those type of numbers in 2007 and subsequently driving him to try too hard to hit homers. This threw his swing out of whack causing him to press harder and eventually throwing him into the mess he’s in now.

This really is too bad for Andruw Jones as he was an incredible player once upon a time and was so much fun to watch. While I wish him the best in trying to find his way again, I just don’t see it happening. At least not any time soon. I think after the 2009 season when his contract is up that Jones may find himself nowhere to go and just taking some time away from the game before trying to break back in a few years later. This may be the best way to go as he needs some time away to clear his head.

This just goes to show what a mental game baseball truly is. Once something gets in your head in this game it is so difficult to get it out.

While I really hope it isn’t too late for Andruw, I have a sinking feeling that it is.

By Matthew Whipps
“The Diamond Cutter“
Major & Minor League Baseball Columnist
mlbdiamondcutter@gmail.com | Facebook

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